The current stage is witnessing severe global crises, and the international situation is moving towards political and economic change and change. Its most prominent feature is extreme liquidity, and if you like, it is chaotic.
With the turmoil in the international system, the uncertainty of the future has become a feature of the twenty-first century, and the longer time goes on and the situation continues as it is, the higher the price becomes, not only for the countries and peoples of the region, but for the whole world.
Arab weakness and a major global crisis
Over the past century, the Arab political system did not succeed in exploiting many opportunities produced by global changes, starting in the middle of the twentieth century.
It can be said that the entire Arab region has been unable to secure a place for itself in the global arena, in the absence of influential global crises. Rather, its connection to the outside has deepened, and most of its countries are now living, in my view, in a very difficult existential dilemma.
Now, the Arab political system and the Arab region seem more weak, and in the face of a major global crisis, which is the result of conflicts between an American-Western camp that is trying to establish its hegemony, and a camp that wants change and rejects Western hegemony, led by China and Russia.
A failed international system and a turbulent world
The world order established after World War II, with its international and international institutions and organizations, did not succeed in achieving the desired peace and tranquility. Rather, the world became more tense, and the major powers began managing their conflicts through proxy wars in different parts of the world, and the Arab region and the Middle East in general were a direct theater for this conflict.
The world is already experiencing a third world war, the features of which have become more evident since the end of the second decade of this century, and it takes various forms, commercial, economic and war, and the journey of political polarization has begun through the use of force in its various forms.
The world is living in a stage in which the economy has become the disease and cure of the world, breaking the emergence of states, destroying the thrones of systems, and with it taming the world in the struggle for domination.
In light of a global conflict that seems likely to expand over time and space, countries have to define their options, in light of an increasingly fluid situation in which surprises continue.
Over the years, the world has undergone clear transformations, which can be said to be related to the geostrategic policy of the United States of America, the dominant pole in the global system.
The United States of America has begun to gradually exit the Middle East region, at a time when it seeks to contain the Americas, and has devoted its efforts towards Asia and the Pacific.
America supported Britain’s exit from the European Union, despite the heavy losses of this exit, but the promise was to compensate Britain, by opening the horizon to return to control over the places from which the United States of America will withdraw, within the framework of a process of distributing strategic and military powers in the world, according to the American vision.
With the world entering the Corona crisis, and the accompanying media pumping, the world was forced to enter into a state of stagnation and an unprecedented crisis, and the indicators were all of them It indicates that the world is heading towards a change in the international system.--
America, which used to produce 40% of the world’s production, now produces only 20%, but it still controls the world with its paper currency, and the US dollar represents more than half of the world’s foreign exchange reserves.-
The truth is that the United States of America is a bankrupt country and controls the world by force, and the world, under its domination, is living in a debt crisis. In America, the total national debt and debt ceiling amounted to about $31.4 trillion, in light of an American deficit of nearly one trillion dollars annually since 2001.
Global crises in an American industry
And with the crisis of the Ukrainian-Russian war, which was engineered by the United States of America, the world was on a date with a violent shock of American industry, and it had a devastating effect on countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America, as a result of the inflationary consequences accompanied by stagnation, resulting from financial and economic sanctions, and the ban on trade with Russia , which is a major source of many basic commodities and natural resources, but on the ground it was not a negative matter for the American and Western elite decision-makers – the men of money, business, industry and oil -, despite the negative effects on the American and European citizens.
The American and Western arms market has flourished, in addition to the benefits accruing to the American oil industry, as a result of the rise in oil prices, and this is what we put forward in a previous article of ours last year entitled: Punishing Russia or forcing the world.
In the article, we showed that the war in Ukraine was merely a catalyst for imposing sanctions that would result in global energy and food crises, allowing the United States of America to force the Global South to be with or against America.
The future and the Arab region
What about the future? What does it hold for the Arab region in light of a changing world? A question that may be difficult to answer.
The world is living in a stage in which the area of uncertainty is expanding, the compass of expectation is turbulent, and it is no longer able to determine the direction in light of the acceleration of changes, the multiplicity of actors, the intertwining and diversity of issues, and the lack of constants that can be built upon to predict the behavior of the major actors, even to some extent.
It appears on the horizon that the world is on the verge of a difficult and painful stage, the most prominent feature of which is: the confusion of the international system, the failure of globalization, and widespread economic stagnation. It may be difficult to predict everything, but what seems clear is: that nothing in the future will remain the same. on him.
It is important for the countries of the region to deal realistically with the current changes based on the interests of their people, in light of a world in which chances for peace are dwindling and threatened by the continuing specter of war.
The successive global developments are the biggest challenge facing the Arab region and the world now, as there is a violent earthquake that shook the world in the past period, and its aftermath will not stop in the near future. Saying that the middle position can be a safe haven, and the Arab region may have an interest in Russia’s supremacy in the war, but on the other hand it cannot help, nor does it have influence on both sides of the conflict, and therefore the Arab region will remain subject to pressure as long as this war continues and expands its fronts.
The world is now going through a phase that is one of the most confusing in the modern era, in light of the struggles of international domination, and the global system has become in a phase of wandering, as it is not based on bipolarity, nor is it amenable to entering into a phase of multipolarity, and it seems that this situation will continue for a while until it intensifies. The conflict on the ground between the major competitors, and the survival of this situation is a very dangerous matter for the Arab region, whose countries have been suffering from dependence for decades, and have remained a theater during which the great powers run their military, political and economic battles by proxy.
It is dangerous for the countries of the region to remain waiting for the outcome of the struggle for hegemony, because they will never escape its consequences, but the current situation requires collective action from the countries of the region, to get out of the circle of its effect, as crises and major incidents push towards the search for solutions, where there is no for choices.