Iran.. Expectations about an upcoming wave of protests that will turn into politics

Iran.. Expectations about an upcoming wave of protests that will turn into politics
Iran.. Expectations about an upcoming wave of protests that will turn into politics

In light of some decline in the level of protests that began last September under the slogan “Woman, Life, Freedom” and which did not stop completely, especially in the provinces of Baluchistan and Kurdistan, observers of Iranian affairs see that a new wave of demand-based protests is on the way, which will soon turn into another. to politics soon after its inception.

The crisis economic situation is the driver

The dire economic situation will be the main driver of the expected protests, and the most prominent indicator is the steadily declining price of the Iranian currency against foreign currencies. According to the report of the “Ben Best” website, which publishes currency rates, every US dollar exceeded 45,000 tomans for a few hours, today, Sunday, January 22. And he returned to 44 thousand tomans again.

It is noteworthy that the price of the US dollar, prior to Washington’s withdrawal from the nuclear agreement, was about 3 thousand and 600 tomans, and it rose continuously during Hassan Rouhani’s government until it reached about 25 thousand tomans, and after Ibrahim Raisi took over the presidential chair on August 3, 2021, the pace of jumps in prices intensified. Non-stop foreign exchange.

Currency fluctuations during the months following the recent protests prompted some economists to predict an early occurrence of a “new round of economic protests” in Iran.

At the same time that the price of the dollar rose to 45,000 tomans today, Sunday, the French news agency quoted an Iranian researcher at an institute affiliated with the American University of Beirut, Ali Fathallah Nejad, as saying that Iran is stuck in the current circumstance in a dilemma, explaining that the government and the demonstrators , unable to impose themselves on each other, but with the significant decline in the value of the Iranian currency, we can expect demonstrations to start since the beginning of the Iranian year (March 21) focusing on the economy.

According to this analyst, even if protests start for economic reasons in Iran, “they can immediately become political.”

Regarding the price of the Iranian currency, Reuters news agency announced yesterday, Saturday, that the value of the Iranian national currency has fallen to its lowest levels, due to the sanctions and international isolation imposed on Tehran.

And last week, the European Parliament approved a 32-point resolution, voted by a majority of MPs, that designated the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist group.

It is known that the Revolutionary Guards control about 60% of the Iranian government economy, directly and indirectly, through its economic arm, “The Headquarters of the Final Prophets”, so the sanctions against the Revolutionary Guards also affect the Iranian economy.


Demand protests will turn into politics

The Iranian government has faced widespread protests since mid-September against the backdrop of the killing of a Kurdish girl named Gina (Mahsa) Amini at the morality police station. During the protests, about 520 people were killed, about 20,000 others were arrested, and four protesters were executed.


According to the Persian-language “IranWire” website, although these protests began with Iranian women’s demands for freedom to choose the veil, they quickly targeted the general policies of the Iranian regime and senior officials, led by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and turned into one of the longest anti-government protests. government since the 1979 revolution.

According to this report, in November 2019, Iran witnessed widespread protests that began due to the sharp and sudden increase in the price of gasoline, but quickly turned into anti-regime protests. In order to suppress the protests at the time, the regime committed mass killings against the demonstrators, and according to statistics, about 1,500 people were killed.

At that time, Reuters news agency confirmed, according to private sources in the Iranian Ministry of Interior, that 1,500 people had been killed. The Arab city of Ma’shour in the south of Ahwaz witnessed the killing of about 200 protesters who sought refuge in water bodies near the city.

According to the “IranWire” report, the expectations about the occurrence of protests come due to dissatisfaction with the economic situation, as the Iranian authorities themselves did not expect that the economic situation would improve in the near future.

In addition, the deputy head of the “Revolution Bloc” in the Iranian parliament, Mohsen Berhadi, said: “With the continuation of the current situation, it is unlikely that the poverty rate will decrease.”

Ibrahim Raisi: “The future will be very bright”

Despite reports about the crisis hitting the economy, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi continues to make promises to citizens regarding economic openness and improving living conditions.

Today, Ibrahim Raisi went to parliament to defend the draft budget law for the next Iranian year, which begins on March 21, 2023, and promised in his speech that, “depending on the growing economic indicators, the currency and gold market will definitely witness the decline (in prices).”

He described the reports about the economic crisis in Iran as “enemies’ propaganda and skepticism by certain currents” and claimed that “the future will be very bright.”



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