The “Asian NATO” and the “Eurasian Alliance”… a security necessity or a harvest for fear marketing?

The “Asian NATO” and the “Eurasian Alliance”… a security necessity or a harvest for fear marketing?
The “Asian NATO” and the “Eurasian Alliance”… a security necessity or a harvest for fear marketing?
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Dr.. Ayman Samir

The political and security scene in East and Southeast Asia and the Indo-Pacific region draws “new equations” that establish a different stage in the march of this vast region, which has enjoyed, since the end of World War II, calm and peace, and achieved the highest rates of development in the world. The policy of “marketing fear” towards the other has succeeded in prompting the countries of this region to adopt unprecedented “approaches” of partnerships, alliances, and military and economic alignments, which could reach the stage of forming an “Asian NATO” led by the United States and its Asian allies, similar to the Alliance of Nations. North Atlantic “NATO”, which was established in 1949.

The Chinese and Russian “response” to this “challenge” came quickly, by strengthening military cooperation between the two countries. Moscow, according to the Russian National Security Secretary, Nikolai Patrushev, said that the new military agreements that Washington leads and stands behind in Asia, its only goal is to confront Russia and China through The establishment of an “Asian NATO”, similar to the Atlantic NATO, which is the same description that Kim Jong-un, the leader of North Korea, launched at the beginning of the new year, in which he said, “The United States is continuing to establish the Asian version of NATO.” What is the size and nature of Geopolitical changes in East Asia and the Indo-Pacific region? And where did the military build-up reach in that region, through which about 50% of world trade passes? Are we facing an “Asian NATO” that is matched by a “Eurasian alliance” made up of Russia, China, and some countries in the South Caucasus?

Since the former US Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, published her famous article in the May 2010 issue of “Foreign Policy” magazine, under the title “Turning East”, the United States began to change its strategy in looking at East Asia and the Indo-Pacific region as an arena for ” For gains and gains.” The gains begin with the fact that this region has become the “workshop of the world” that manufactures materials and devices that the United States abandoned manufacturing. The American National Security Strategy” on December 19, 2017 “China and Russia” as “strategic competitors” for the United States in the international arena, and this was the biggest shift in Washington’s vision of China and Russia in the new century, because all national security strategies since the events of September 11, 2001 Until President Donald Trump entered the White House on January 20, 2017, it was focused on combating terrorism, not confronting China. The same thing was repeated in the US National Security Strategy during the administration of the current President, Joe Biden, which he announced on October 12, in which it describes China as Washington’s “only competitor” in reshaping the world order.

This shift in the American vision took a series of practical steps to confront China and Russia in Asia, leading to the formation of a series of alliances and paths that establish an “Asian NATO”, according to the Chinese and Russian vision, through 3 main paths:

First: “Producing and Marketing Fear”

This is by describing the United States of China’s behavior towards its neighbors as based on “political bullying”, and that China may adopt Russian military behavior in Ukraine towards its Asian neighbors, and for this reason the White House invested in fueling Chinese disputes with a number of its neighbors, and they are:

  1. The Chinese dispute with Japan over the Senkaku Islands, which are controlled by Japan, and China says that they are part of its territory. Japan also fears China’s control over the island of Taiwan, which makes it only 100 nautical miles away from the nearest Japanese island.
  2. The United States sides fully, without any conditions, with India in its conflict over the 4,000 km border with China, and clashes often occur between border guards between the two countries, the last of which was last December, and the intensity of the Indo-Chinese disputes prompted the New Delhi government To join the “Quad” alliance, which also includes the United States, Japan and Australia, Washington encouraged all the steps taken by New Delhi against China, including the announcement by the Indian Ministry of Defense on January 13 that it would deploy short-range missiles for the first time on the border. with china.
  3. The United States supports the demands of 5 countries in the South China Sea, and the five countries are: Malaysia, Singapore, Vietnam, the Philippines and Brunei, which demand sovereign rights in the South China Sea, rights rejected by China, which is building artificial islands about 800 km from the Chinese mainland, such as the Spartly Islands .
  4. The United States supports Taiwan in its dispute with China, especially the dispute over the rights of passage in the Taiwan Strait. At a time when China considers it a Chinese strait, the United States insists on what it calls “freedom of navigation” through the passage of American and Western warships in the strait, and the support of the United States The political and military unity of Taiwan is one of the rare files on which the two parties agree: the Republican and the Democratic.
  5. The United States supports Australia in its disputes with China, and accuses China of practicing economic coercion and technological exploitation in its dealings with Australia, and despite the passage of 50 years since the start of diplomatic relations between China and Australia last December, there are Australian concerns about the growth of the Chinese navy that you see Australia is a threat, although China is still Australia’s first trading partner, and these Australian concerns are the main reason why Australia joined the “Ocus” military alliance that was established on September 15, 2021, and includes the United States, Britain and Australia.
  6. The United States is seeking to renew “security agreements” with the countries of the Pacific islands, which has an area of ​​about 169.2 million km2, and constitutes about 30% of the globe’s area, after the White House felt a rapprochement between China and some of the governments of those islands, such as the Solomon Islands, Micronesia, Marshall Islands, Marianas, and Palau.

Second: the military build-up

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As a result of the “long investment in tension” the majority of countries in East Asia and the Indian and Pacific oceans turned to buying weapons and adopting new military strategies based on allocating billions of dollars for military purchases, and changing laws and constitutions that previously restricted the purchase of weapons. On the acquisition of nuclear weapons, which is an issue about which it was a political taboo in countries such as Japan and South Korea, and there are a number of forms of military mobilization, including:

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  1. The formation of “new military alliances” in Asia, perhaps the most prominent of which is the “Okus” alliance, which was established on September 15, 2021, and includes the United States, Britain and Australia, and according to this agreement, Australia will obtain American nuclear submarines, to become the second country in the world that has this type of Submarines, after the United Kingdom, and this alliance extends to supersonic weapons and electronic warfare capabilities, in addition to expanding and deepening cooperation in defense innovation between the three countries. The United States will also build military bases in South Australia, in addition to expanding military bases in eastern Australia. And confirming the interest of the White House in the “Quad” alliance, which was established in 2007 and includes, in addition to the United States of America, India, Australia and Japan, where President Joe Biden held his first multilateral meeting after entering the White House with the leaders of the “Quad Alliance” in March. March 2021, but the meeting that took place in Tokyo for the leaders of the “Quads” revealed the long extent of coordination that brings together the four countries that are united by the geopolitical dispute with China, and the United States is keen to support the “Five Eyes” alliance »Which includes the United States, Canada, Britain, Australia and New Zealand, and it is an alliance with an intelligence character to stand up to China.
  2. Japan approved, for the first time in its history, a giant military budget of about $330 billion for the next five years, and it will buy 500 Tomahawk ballistic missiles from the United States, and manufacture new jet aircraft in cooperation with Italy and Britain, which is the first cooperation in military industrialization away from Japan. The United States, but the most important decision is Japan’s adoption for the first time since the defeat of the Imperial Japanese Army in the Battle of Okinawa in 1945, the principle of “response strike”, in response to any danger to Japan or one of its allies, in addition to Japan building a new military base for American aircraft in Kagoshima base, and the expansion of the Joint Defense Treaty, which will include new military fields related to space and glide vehicles.
  3. Japan and Britain signed a new “defense agreement” in the Tower of London on January 11, which allows each country to support the other by “agreeing on mutual access” of the two countries’ forces to the other party.
  4. On October 22, Australia and Japan signed a “security agreement” with the aim of confronting China’s “military rise”, exchanging sensitive information and enhancing military cooperation. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said, “The agreement came in response to an increasingly harsh strategic environment.”
  5. Conducting the largest military maneuver between the United States and the Philippines, dubbed “Sea Warriors Cooperation”, and for the first time included the use of live ammunition and US “HIMARS” missiles on Palawan Island in the western Philippines, an area facing the South China Sea over which Beijing and Manila differ.

Third: Economic alliances

The changes affecting East Asia and the Indo-Pacific region, which establish an “Asian NATO” even without announcing it, according to what the Russian TASS agency said, extend to an attempt to distance China economically from its neighbors through President Joe Biden’s launch on May 12, 2021 of the “framework The Economic Zone of the Indian and Pacific Oceans, which includes 12 countries with Washington, and it challenges China in 4 vital areas: supply chains, clean energy, the digital economy, and food security. The United States has also concluded agreements with South Korea and Japan to expand the manufacture of chips and semiconductors. previously relied on by importing it from China.

In response to the steps taken by Washington and its allies, China has strengthened its land, sea and air forces, especially hypersonic missiles and vehicles. Today, China has 3 aircraft carriers, the latest of which was the launch of the Fujian, which was designed entirely by Chinese hands, but China has developed a set of plans. To confront the Western rush around its borders through 4 main cards, the first of which is “non-public alliances” by strengthening economic and military cooperation with Russia, and the period from 21 to 27 last December witnessed the first joint Russian-Chinese maneuvers involving the three branches of the armed forces. Air, land and sea, in the two countries, prompting American newspapers to describe the matter as a “Eurasian NATO” that brings together China, Russia and North Korea, despite China’s insistence not to call what is happening an alliance.

In the second paper, China describes itself as a country that does not have “political conditionality” when cooperating with others as an alternative to the United States, which imposes endless conditions for arms sales or military cooperation. Beijing has American and British agreements in East Asia and the Indo-Pacific region, by seeking to sign security and military agreements with 10 Pacific countries, according to Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin.

The fourth card that China relies on is the “back garden” policy, which is based on China strengthening its relations with territories and regions that were previously exclusive to the United States and its Western allies, such as Africa and Latin America, as China has become the first trading partner for Africa and Latin America.

What is certain is that East Asia and the Indo-Pacific region are changing, and that there are new political and military equations, all of which are developments that require Arab countries to follow. Arab relations with all these countries are based on many immediate and future interests.

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