Experience says that wars rarely go as planned, and indeed the dimensions of the war chosen by Russian President Vladimir Putin have changed several times, within one year. After it became existential for the master of the Kremlin, it now threatens the military and political credibility of Ukraine’s allies.
This is how Jill Paris opened his editorial in the French newspaper Le Monde, to make it clear that the plans drawn up in a time of cold peace to meet the specifications of military victory do not guarantee success, as demonstrated by the double failure of the United States – the leading military power in the world – in Afghanistan and Iraq. The intervention did not lead to results more satisfactory to the interests of Washington and its allies.
And with the entry of the war imposed by Russia in Ukraine into its 12th month – as the author says – the limits that Kyiv’s Western supporters set for themselves, in terms of military assistance, are receding, until it became necessary to deliver German-made heavy tanks to Ukraine.
And everything indicates – according to Paris’s generation – that other red lines will be crossed in the coming months, unless a sudden and unlikely Russian collapse occurs, especially with the continued urgent Ukrainian calls and improvisation, without adequately explaining the decisions to public opinion in the countries concerned.-
The escalation continues
However, the debate – which opened about the legitimacy and importance of this Western aid – helped the unexpected Ukrainian resistance overcome it at first, especially since the aggressor’s disregard for the most basic laws of war led to ever-increasing support for aid, but the relative calm observed in Kyiv finally revived it.--
This controversy always collides in the end – as the writer says – with the fact that the only alternative to the continuation of Western aid is the surrender of Kyiv, as this is evident in the official Russian rhetoric and the path that Putin stubbornly follows, but the questioning of this huge aid reminds of two facts hidden by the fog of war.
The first fact relates to the danger of warfare, which is regularly brought up to warn of unintended consequences. It refers to the unpredictable nature of war dynamics and the blind escalation that could lead to an explosion beyond the borders of the war in Ukraine.
The second fact is that Russia’s assessment of this issue is purely political – according to the author – as the red lines that would turn Kyiv’s allies into warriors because of the arms shipments they provide are not clear, except for the establishment of a no-fly zone targeting Russian aircraft, or the offensive or defensive nature of the weapons. Therefore, the escalation continues, and the initiator of the war did nothing to prevent it.