The Iranian dream is getting closer to reality… The share of “black gold” in the budget has declined


Iran has aimed for 30 years to get rid of the use of oil as a main tool in the economy, and to turn the country into an industrial power that uses its own capabilities for production.

  • The Iranian dream is getting closer to reality.. Hessah retreated
    The Iranian dream is getting closer to reality… The share of “black gold” in the budget has declined

“My main wish, which may not be achievable in the near future, is that we shut down the oil wells and build our economy on exporting non-oil commodities and products. Let’s assume that this country does not have a commodity called oil.” With these words, the Iranian Supreme Leader, Seyyed Ali Khamenei, in a historic speech to regime officials in 1994, expressed his vision to rid the country’s economy of the “oil curse.”

A vision that was not limited to economic motives only, but also included political fears of repeating the experience of the “Mohammed Mossadeq” government, which was overthrown by the West through the imposition of sanctions after it rejected British dictates in the file of nationalizing the oil industry.

The words seemed a distant dream at the time, given the structure of the Iranian economy, which has depended entirely on the sale of oil since before the victory of the Islamic Revolution. Many of the “technocratic officials” in the Islamic Republic, as the Supreme Leader describes them, believed that a country like Iran could not get out of the framework of the oil economy, no matter how developed its industrial capabilities were.

However, today, after nearly 30 years have passed, the Iranian dream is approaching reality, with the impact of a long-term economic renaissance, and despite the desire of some governments, during the past years, to resort to selling oil as the easiest way to bridge the gaps and face the budget deficit.

An increase in non-oil revenues

A study of public budgets in Iran during the past years shows that the share of oil in government revenues has witnessed a continuous decline, despite the success of the new government headed by Ibrahim Raisi in circumventing sanctions and the increase in oil sales.

This trend culminated in the draft budget for the Iranian new year, where projected non-oil revenues increased by 59%. Industrial exports, along with taxes, are the two main sources to fill the oil vacuum in next year’s budget. Iranian experts have been calling on governments for years to reform tax policies as a gateway to diversifying government sources and building a productive and more sustainable economy.


It is noteworthy that the new tax policies adopted by the government in Iran mainly target large companies and high-income groups, as the government provides support for low- and middle-income families, according to the plan approved by the Iranian parliament.


Reducing dependence on oil resources and enhancing the country’s production capabilities was a main focus of Raisi’s election campaign more than a year ago, which was confirmed by the Iranian president, last week, in the session for presenting the new year’s budget project to parliament, saying: “We do not back down from implementing the leadership’s directives to reduce dependence.” on oil, despite all the economic challenges we face.” In the context, the Iranian Minister of Economy, Ehsan Khandozi, promised earlier that his country would get rid of what he described as “oil budgets” before the end of the 13th government.

Opposition to the Supreme Leader of the oil economy

The Iranian guide’s gaze led negative Oil and its share of government revenues played an important role in guiding economic approaches in post-revolutionary Iran. Mr. Ali Khamenei announced his opposition to what he described as the “oil economy” in the period itself Post-war governments (with Saddam Hussein’s regime) in Iran launched their reconstruction work.

The Supreme Leader has always considered the need for governments to sell oil as evidence of a lack of economic independence, which makes the great revolution that took place in 1979 in order to obtain political independence incomplete, according to his belief.

In the context, Sayyid Khamenei, in his speech in 1998 on the occasion of Nowruz, stressed the need to save the Iranian economy from the structure that was shown to him years ago and said: “One of the biggest betrayals committed by the Shah’s regime against the Iranian people and that cannot be easily compensated is that it made the country’s economy dependent on oil.” .

On the other hand, the Supreme Leader saw the economy’s addiction to oil exports as a factor for strengthening the West’s control over the economies of third world countries, as those powers do not allow the transfer of major industries to oil-exporting countries, and turn them into mere “third world” markets for consumer goods. As a result, all the economic directives of the Iranian guide revolve around two main axes: enhancing the country’s productive capacity by relying on its own capabilities and the need for Iran to possess nuclear energy.

Indeed, the policy adopted by America and its allies during the subsequent years to confront and contain Iran proves that the Western alliance views oil as a tool through which it can manage energy-exporting Islamic and Arab countries. On the other hand, the Iranian response to this approach was not only resorting to secret networks to circumvent the sanctions, but also went towards the option of rebuilding the economy so that it would allow it to withstand pressure and use its local capabilities for progress. This is the 30-year dream of the Iranian economy, which, if fully realized, will mean the end of the era of dependence on energy, and the country’s transformation from a consumption market into an industrial power that will use its own capabilities for production. Political independence is not complete without economic independence.



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