Turkish elections 2023.. The reason for choosing Erdogan on May 14th

Turkish elections 2023.. The reason for choosing Erdogan on May 14th
Turkish elections 2023.. The reason for choosing Erdogan on May 14th
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The political situation in Turkey is currently inflamed to the point that we can describe it as being on a hot plate. In light of the political tensions and verbal battles between the various parties and political alliances, several question marks appear clearly looking for an answer to several questions about the internal situation of the upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections. The most prominent of these are: Questions about the reasons and motives that led to discussing the issue of advancing the election date, the legally available dates for holding these elections, and which date will be weighted? And why? In the coming lines, you will find satisfactory answers to these puzzling questions.

From allusion to statement

The desire of the ruling Justice and Development Party in Turkey to advance the date of the elections moved from the hints that were issued by its officials and President Erdogan during the month of December to statements, so that the option of early elections became more likely by several political parties and alliances in Turkey.

The presidential and parliamentary general elections were scheduled to be held on June 18, but AKP officials recently expressed fears of a low turnout at the planned date as a result of its coinciding with various occasions.

The date of next June 18 will not be conducive to the calculations of the Justice and Development Party, as it coincides with Turkish university exams, and thus will be an obstacle to the participation of a large segment of university boys and girls.

Motives for bringing forward the election date

There are many reasons that prompted President Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party to consider bringing forward the date of the next elections, and they are divided into 3 main reasons:

The date of next June 18 will not be favorable to the calculations of the Justice and Development Party, as it coincides with Turkish university exams, and therefore will be an obstacle to the participation of a large segment of university boys and girls, which would raise a lot of criticism and interpret it as marginalization of a class Young people and underestimating their electoral right.

On the other hand, this date coincides with the start of the Hajj season, and the votes of the conservative and religious segment are of course important for the ruling party and President Erdogan, especially as we are talking about fateful elections for all parties, especially for the ruling party with the beginning of a new century in the history of the Turkish Republic, and therefore who will go to perform Hajj rituals will not be able to easily participate and vote in these elections, and as we mentioned earlier it is an important part of the ruling Justice and Development Party, as well as of course the start of the holiday season in this month.

In this sense, it is difficult to compare between June 2018, when the elections were held, and June 2023. After all, the Hajj season is the point that the ruling party most likely took into account, especially if the elections went to a second round, which takes place according to the law. The organizer of the elections 15 days after the first round, as this will coincide with the Eid al-Adha holiday, and there is no doubt that all parties take into account the possibility of going to a second round and take all their measures and calculate their accounts on this basis.

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President Erdogan and the Justice and Development Party were keen to gain time in favor of the measures that were taken recently with the elections approaching, such as increasing the minimum wage in a way that satisfies most segments of society and guarantees them a decent life amid global crises, especially economic ones, in addition to the law to lower the retirement age issued by President Erdogan 2.25 million citizens benefited from it, in addition to the house-building campaigns launched by the Turkish government for citizens at low prices compared to real estate market prices and in comfortable installments for those who do not own a house, and other steps and decisions that the party does not want to fade with the passage of time in conjunction with the continuing inflation crisis in country.

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Attempting to weight between 3 different dates, but all of them must be after the sixth of April 2023, in order to ensure the entry into force of the new election law, a law passed by the Public Alliance – which includes the Justice and Development and National Movement parties – through the Turkish Parliament in April April 2022

Appointments are legally available

Earlier, sources close to the Justice and Development Party indicated an attempt to weight between 3 different dates, but all of them must be after the sixth of April 2023, in order to ensure the entry into force of the new election law, a law passed by the Public Alliance – which includes the two Justice Parties. development and the national movement – through the Turkish parliament in April 2022, and among its most prominent provisions is the reduction of the electoral threshold for entering parliament from 10% to 7%, and the possibility of distributing parliamentary seats among electoral alliances even if the party is small and modern and has not reached the electoral threshold, which means that any Possible election date must be after 6th April 2023.

Suggestion of an electoral campaign date

Since the month of Ramadan and the Eid al-Fitr holiday will last for almost the entire month of April, it was natural to avoid thinking about choosing a date during this month to hold the elections, and therefore the talk was about 3 possible dates, which are April 30, May 7, and May 14. May, but as we said previously, the date of April 30 is not likely for the president and the ruling party, due to the coincidence of the election campaigns with the month of Ramadan, and the difficulties and hardships involved in movement and gatherings in squares and squares in conjunction with the atmosphere of fasting, standing and collective worship.

On May 14, 1950, the first multi-party elections in Turkey’s history took place, and the Democratic Party ascended to power after winning those elections under the leadership of Adnan Menderes, thus ending an era that lasted 27 years of the rule of the Republican People’s Party, which monopolized power throughout that period, and whose foundation was based on Atatürk’s hand, and his disciples took over his leadership after him, most notably Ismet Inonu

Thus, we have 7 and 14 May left, which are pretty much equal, but the second option (May 14) seems more likely for 3 reasons:

  • First: Ensure sufficient time for campaigning after Eid al-Fitr ends on April 23, so that there are 3 weeks to carry out campaigning activities until the election date.
  • Second: That date coincided with the desire of the opposition and did not object to it. In statements by the President of the Republican People’s Party, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, specifically on January 15, he said that he would not express an objection if the May 14 date for the upcoming elections was agreed upon, and there is a point An important thing that must be taken into consideration is that the opposition also does not want elections that coincide with holidays and travel that may affect the number of targeted votes.
  • Third: The symbolism of the timing and its electoral significance. On May 14, 1950, the first multi-party elections in the history of Turkey took place, and the Democratic Party rose to power after winning those elections under the leadership of Adnan Menderes, thus ending an era that lasted 27 years of the rule of the Republican People’s Party, which monopolized power. Throughout that period, which was founded by Ataturk and was led by his disciples after him, most notably Ismet Inonu, Erdogan said in statements to members of his party in the Turkish Parliament: “Our nation will direct its response to the Six-Party Alliance (opposition) on the same day after 73 years, and the people will tell them enough is enough.” Thus, the date itself is a symbolic election propaganda for President Erdogan and his ruling party.

Erdogan is using his powers

Turkish President Erdogan said during the past few days during a meeting of youth in the state of Bursa, saying: “I will use my powers to advance the date of the elections to May 14,” and indicated during this meeting that they are “not early elections,” but rather an amendment aimed at taking into account the date of university exams. And he pointed out in his speech that the electoral campaign will begin 60 days before the date, that is, on the tenth of next March, and in view of these statements, the president has set May 14 to become the official date for holding the presidential and legislative elections in the country.

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