Vienna negotiations .. Iran “going in two ways”


Negotiations to revive the nuclear deal with Iran have not made any kind of progress, with a new round of talks scheduled for next week.

At a time when Iran is negotiating its return to the 2015 nuclear agreement, it has developed a new mechanism to accelerate the production of enriched uranium by 60 percent, despite the fact that the percentage specified in the international agreement does not exceed 4 percent, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency.

On Friday, the Europeans expressed their “disappointment and concern” a few days after the resumption of negotiations in Vienna over Iran’s nuclear program, according to diplomats from France, Germany and Britain.

On Friday, a US State Department spokesman confirmed that the new Iranian administration did not come to Vienna with constructive proposals, and that “Iran’s approach this week did not attempt to resolve the remaining issues.”

What does Iran want from the nuclear deal negotiations? Is it serious about negotiating to revive the nuclear deal?

Iran's chief negotiator Ali Bagheri

Iran’s chief negotiator Ali Bagheri

Iranian political analyst, Hossein Rourian, said in response to Al-Hurra’s inquiries that “Iran certainly wants to revive the nuclear agreement, especially in light of the economic sanctions it suffers from, and therefore it wants to implement the 2015 nuclear agreement and lift international sanctions.”

He added, “There is no need to question Tehran’s intention to implement the nuclear agreement or its seriousness in the negotiations and discussions that are taking place with Western countries.”

Rorian believes that Iran wants to reach the nuclear agreement as soon as possible, especially as it demands “the lifting of all sanctions at once, and not their implementation in stages.”

He explained that “all that Iran wants from negotiations is a return to implementing the nuclear agreement and lifting sanctions, but it sees two dilemmas looming on the horizon, the first of which is that the United States does not want a complete lifting of sanctions, and secondly, that the United States does not want to give any guarantee for the continuity of the agreement.”

He pointed out that in 2015, when Iran signed the agreement, it then took approval in Parliament, but when he asked the United States to take it to Congress for approval, it was referred to the Security Council to turn it into an international resolution that supposedly binds all international parties.

Rorian added that Iran does not want to repeat the scenario of implementing the agreement unilaterally and then withdrawing other parties, as happened with the 2015 agreement from which the administration of former US President Donald Trump withdrew.

Procrastination under the cover of negotiations

Happening 2015

Happening 2015

Director of the Ahwazi Center for Media and Strategic Studies, Hassan Radi, told Al-Hurra that “Iran does not want to revive the 2015 nuclear agreement, especially since those who control the country are the hard-line conservatives who reject the agreement.”

He added that Iran says it wants to abide by the agreement, but on the ground it is violating it and is proceeding with its nuclear program plans.

Radi said that Iran “wants to lift all sanctions, while it is stalling through negotiations to reach nuclear capabilities under the cover of the talks.”

He asserts that Tehran is taking advantage of the lack of a time limit for negotiations by disrupting the work of the International Atomic Energy Agency, in order to gain time to achieve its real goals by strengthening its nuclear capabilities.

Radi expects that the negotiations will continue to fail as Iran raises the ceiling of its demands without achieving any real commitment to the nuclear file.

“No desire to succeed in negotiations”

A new round of negotiations next week

A new round of negotiations next week

Political analyst, Amer al-Sabayleh, explained in an interview with Al-Hurra that “the nature of Iran’s interaction with the current negotiations reveals that it does not want to return to the 2015 nuclear agreement as it is, and wants to change the equation of sanctions in exchange for commitment.”

He added that returning to the agreement after it reached its nuclear program may be useless, unless all sanctions are directly removed and additional benefits are provided to them.

Al-Sabayla stressed that Iran is still using the time factor to its advantage as it is making qualitative leaps in its nuclear program with the aim of serving its negotiating position, especially if the international community feels that it will reach an advanced stage that qualifies it to obtain the nuclear weapon it seeks.

Therefore, Tehran wants to convey the message that “the ones who lose today are those who reject Iran’s dictates,” and therefore it does not want the negotiations to succeed, at least during the current stage.

Al-Sabayla believes that the Iranian internal scene does not reflect the seriousness of negotiations with Western countries, especially since those who control the regime are more hard-line conservatives than the team that was present in 2015.

He expected that Tehran would keep using its tools to exacerbate instability in the region, whether by targeting the Gulf region or through its moves in the Middle East, as it wants to emphasize that it is a major player in the region, and to obtain in return gains from this matter.

He pointed out that those who control the game in Tehran see the futility of returning to an agreement that their political opponent had reached with Western powers and did not achieve the desired.

International will and sanctions

Iran's nuclear negotiations have been suspended and will resume next week in Vienna

Iran’s nuclear negotiations have been suspended and will resume next week in Vienna

Political analyst, Ali Rajab, said in an interview with Al-Hurra website that “Iran is betting on the international desire to reach a nuclear agreement, with Tehran brandishing uranium enrichment rates, and worsening regional stability in Iraq, Syria, Yemen and international navigation in the Gulf.”

He added that Tehran does not want to “make more concessions in internal files such as the missile and drone program, as well as the file of pro-Tehran militias in the Middle East.”

Rajab indicated that Iran believes that “the agreement process is possible according to its point of view,” but if the negotiations do not proceed in the way that Tehran sees, it will not lose anything because it will continue to enrich uranium and will have its reasons and reference for the continuation of the nuclear program, which will mean that it is close to acquiring a nuclear weapon. .

He stresses that what Tehran wants from the negotiations of the nuclear agreement aims primarily to lift international sanctions, release frozen funds to help its deteriorating economy, and also rescue the oil sector in light of the deterioration of infrastructure and the suspension of international investments, after the Trump administration’s withdrawal from the agreement.

Iran is also seeking to lift international sanctions on the office of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and his family, especially his son Mojtaba Khamenei, who is known as the shadow guide in Tehran, and also on Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi, as well as lifting sanctions on the leaders of the Revolutionary Guards.

Regarding Iran’s seriousness to revive the nuclear agreement, Rajab explains that “Iran enters negotiations in two parallel ways, the first is to reach an agreement according to minimum concessions and the absence of major concessions by the Iranian regime in the new agreement, and to obtain American guarantees not to withdraw from the agreement again, and the second way By continuing the process of uranium enrichment and getting close to acquiring a nuclear weapon, in a way that guarantees Tehran access to the deterrent power it wants in the face of its enemies in the region, as well as the United States.

He stated that “if the negotiation process is characterized by ambiguity and ambiguity, the process of reaching the agreement will not be easy and may come after guarantees obtained by Tehran from the major countries, and that this depends on what the United States will provide to Iran, and whether the process of threatening the military option by Washington in If the agreement fails, it will succeed in getting Tehran to reach the agreement or not.”

Undo adjustments

Inside Iran's Natanz nuclear facility

Inside Iran’s Natanz nuclear facility

Senior diplomats from France, Germany and Britain said that “Tehran is backing away from all the hard-to-reach settlements” during the first round of negotiations between April and June, denouncing a “step back”, according to a report published by Agence France-Presse.

In turn, the United States on Friday criticized the Iranian authorities, saying that they did not make “constructive suggestions” during the negotiations on the Iranian nuclear file in Vienna.

“The new Iranian government did not come to Vienna with constructive proposals,” White House spokeswoman Jen Psaki said.

“We still hope for a diplomatic approach, it is always the best option,” she added, but she realized that “Iran’s approach this week was, unfortunately, not to try to address the outstanding problems.”

The delegations will return at the end of this week to their capitals and will resume negotiations in the middle of next week “to see if these differences can be overcome or not.” “It is not clear how it will be possible to bridge this gap in a realistic time frame on the basis of the Iranian project,” the European diplomats added.

Despite these harsh statements, they said that they are “fully engaged in the search for a diplomatic solution,” stressing that “time is running out.”

And on Thursday, Iran’s chief negotiator Ali Bagheri announced that he had submitted two proposals, “one on lifting sanctions” and the other on “nuclear activities.”

“Now the other side must examine these documents and prepare to negotiate with Iran on the basis of the texts presented,” he added.

The current Iranian president is in his country's nuclear facility

The current Iranian president is in his country’s nuclear facility

Before returning to Tehran, Bagheri touched on the “objections” expressed by the Europeans. “I told them that this is normal because we will not present documents and proposals that match their views,” he told the official Iranian news agency.

He reiterated his country’s “serious desire” to “reach an agreement.”

In a telephone conversation with his European counterpart Josep Borrell, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian described “the negotiation process as good, but generally slow,” according to the Iranian Foreign Ministry’s website.

“We believe that a good agreement can be reached, but this calls for a change in the approach of some parties who have to abandon their threatening statements and choose documents that focus on cooperation, mutual respect and results,” Abdollahian said.

“These proposals cannot serve as a basis for negotiation, it is not possible to advance” on this basis, a European diplomat said.

In front of the Palais de Coburg, where the landmark agreement was struck, the Chinese ambassador was less pessimistic and noted “substantive talks”.

“All parties agreed to take a short pause to take directions. This is normal and necessary, and we hope it will give new impetus to the negotiations,” Wang Kun told reporters.

But French President Emmanuel Macron said during a visit to Dubai that it should “not be ruled out” that this tour would not start “again quickly”.

On the other hand, Macron called for a “wider dynamism” with the countries of the region.


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