Oil under pressure from the unexpected rise in commercial inventories and the acceleration of US production


Crude oil prices fell for the second day in a row, as expectations of an abundant oil supply in the markets increased, an unexpected rise in the level of commercial crude oil inventories and an acceleration of US production.
The energy ministers of the “OPEC +” group are preparing to hold the monthly meeting on December 2nd, amid market speculation about the possibility of making new decisions regarding the level of supplies and perhaps reversing the monthly increase applied since last August of 400,000 barrels per day.
He told Al-Eqtisadiah, oil analysts, that “volatility prevails in the market, but crude oil futures contracts have largely stabilized, as risk sentiment remained strong despite the sudden increase in US crude oil stocks, which supported concerns about a recovery in demand.”
They stated that the spare capacity of “OPEC +” to pump oil is limited in light of the difficulties facing small producers, and the “OPEC +” group is struggling to increase oil supplies and meet its total quota for several months, noting that the performance of African members of “OPEC” in particular is still weak in a way. Large due to lack of spare capacity and poor investment.
In this context, Mofeed Mandra, Vice President of the Austrian LMF Energy Company, says, “The sudden rise in stocks contributed to calming the pace of gains and the return of declines, especially since this coincided with the decision to release the US strategic reserve,” explaining that oil stocks are still about 7.2 percent below the five-year average for this time of year.
He stated that the current price declines may be temporary because investors are optimistic about crude oil in the near term, after the announcements of withdrawals from the strategic oil reserve came much less than expected, which led to a rise in oil prices by more than 3 percent.
And Andre Morris, director of the international consulting firm Boeri, believes that the demand for crude oil and fuel is tending to grow at a rapid pace, especially in light of the colder weather that prevails in many parts of Asia and ignites energy consumption and prices, particularly in light of the gas and coal crisis.
He pointed out that oil prices are subjected to counterintuitive pressures represented in the rise of the US dollar, which has an inverse relationship with crude oil, as the dollar recorded new record highs, which ignited inflation levels, which reached its highest level in three decades last October.
For his part, David Desma, an analyst at South Court International, explains that crude oil has passed a state of price fluctuations once a coordinated withdrawal of strategic oil reserves was announced in a number of major economies, noting that this additional supply is unlikely to limit price gains, especially It came less than previous expectations, and everyone is waiting for the reaction of the “OPEC +” group at the next monthly meeting.
He referred to the “OPEC +” group’s conviction that the decision to withdraw from strategic stocks in the United States, India, Japan and Korea is not justified in light of the current market situation, and that some international reports suggest that the “OPEC +” group will reconsider its previous plans to add more Presented at the monthly meeting next week.
Winnie Akilo, an American analyst at African Engineering International, points out that withdrawing from stocks is not the solution to restore balance and stability in the market, which explains the reluctance of large consumers to make the decision, stressing that the data issued by “Energy Aspects” are likely to lead the efforts led by the United States. To reduce crude oil prices in the short term to higher prices next year.
She explained that the resumption of talks on the Iranian nuclear agreement next week in Vienna will have a wide impact on the market, and if it succeeds in crystallizing a new agreement, this will translate into pumping additional oil supplies to the global market, noting that the negotiations will certainly be difficult, but the return of hope for a deal It will have an immediate impact on the market.
On the other hand, with regard to prices, oil prices fell in the European market yesterday to continue their losses for the second day in a row, under pressure from oversupply concerns in the United States, after an unexpected rise in commercial crude stocks, and the acceleration of American oil production levels.
US crude fell about 0.5 percent, to the level of $ 77.97, from the opening level at $ 78.32, and recorded the highest level at $ 78.62, and Brent crude fell by more than 0.3 percent, to the level of $ 81.94 a barrel, from the opening level at $ 82.17, and recorded The highest level is at $82.57.
And US crude lost 0.25 percent at Wednesday’s settlement, and Brent crude fell 0.1 percent, in the first loss in the last three days, following the weekly report of the US Energy Agency.
And the US Energy Agency announced on Wednesday that commercial stocks in the country increased by 1.0 million barrels, during the week ending on November 19, contrary to expectations that indicated a decrease of 1.7 million barrels.
As for US production, it rose last week by about one hundred thousand barrels per day, bringing the total to 11.5 million barrels.
On the other hand, the OPEC crude basket rose, and its price reached $81.75 a barrel on Wednesday, compared to $79.4 a barrel the previous day. The daily report of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said yesterday, “The price of the basket, which includes average prices of 13 crudes produced by the member countries of the Organization, achieved its second consecutive rise, and that the basket gained a few cents compared to the same day last week, when it recorded 81.1 dollars per barrel. “.


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