About the location of Lebanon on the map of the Vienna negotiations and the Iranian-Saudi meeting?

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Ghada Halawi wrote in “Nidaa Al-Watan”:

Finally, the new round of negotiations began with the Iranian nuclear file in the Austrian capital, Vienna. Great hopes are pinned on the results of these negotiations and questions about the future of the nuclear agreement, and the results that will be built on these negotiations at the regional level. In Lebanon, which used to mortgage its internal files to the course of developments around it, it is awaiting the repercussions that will emerge from these negotiations that will have an impact on resolving its accumulated crises. But betting on the success of the nuclear negotiations will not necessarily serve its purpose, at least in the near future.

The facts regarding the nuclear deal have changed. Political sources closely familiar with the nuclear file indicate that the negotiations taking place will not be based on the previously signed nuclear agreement, but rather on the proposal of a “temporary nuclear agreement” proposed by the United States and backed by China and Russia, because the current agreement cannot be implemented for many related reasons. With US President Joe Biden and his limited powers and being surrounded by Congress.

What is meant by the temporary agreement is that agreement that will continue until the end of the US President’s term and through which he can exercise his powers and lift sanctions on Iran every three months, allowing the release of a large part of Iran’s assets abroad and facilitating the possibility of importing basic goods, commercial and banking exchange, and selling its stock from Petroleum derivatives. Thus, Biden has been freed from the shackles of his congressional stalkers.

As for what is required of Iran in the next stage, it is to stop the enrichment process at rates higher than it needs, to sell the surplus of the fertilizer it produces, and to allow the IAEA inspectors to return to their work according to the previous mechanism. It was agreed not to discuss any files outside the framework of the nuclear agreement, not ballistic missiles, nor the inclusion of other countries in the negotiations, nor the discussion of Iranian influence in the region. On the other hand, it was agreed to discuss some issues related to Arab-Iranian relations, on which initiatives were launched, and to enhance military capabilities. This is an item that gives Iran the right to manufacture conventional ballistic weapons without nuclear warheads. As for the issue of armaments in the region, Iran does not object to discussing it, provided that it is not confined to Iran, but rather includes other countries such as Israel, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, India and Pakistan, meaning that the discussion is comprehensive. The temporary agreement requires Iran to abide by the incoming terms, otherwise it will be held accountable, and the Security Council will have to decide on it, given that the nuclear agreement was issued by it.

But the question is, how will such an agreement, if it takes place, affect the Arab region, including Lebanon?

An expert on Iranian affairs asserts that the agreement will inevitably reflect on the countries of the region as a whole. All countries in the region need a settlement and not war. Iran suffers from an economic crisis and focuses its attention on the nuclear issue and the lifting of the embargo. Saudi Arabia has its crisis in Yemen, and America has its existential crises and its confrontation with China, Russia and its ramifications. Therefore, it announced its withdrawal from Iraq and is in the process of withdrawing from Syria and preventing Israel From adventurism towards Iran, because this would expose the region to an existential war between two axes. The only American option was to negotiate with Iran instead of moving towards the manufacture of nuclear weapons. The American goal is for the region’s situation to fluctuate between no war and no peace, meaning no stability, so that the parties affiliated with it cannot dispense with it.

At the current stage, the stability of the region may be in America’s interest, while Iran is rearranging its cards again, and with an American green light, the Iranian-Saudi negotiations have begun, and the information says that the last round led to positives at the level of bilateral relations, and a Saudi security delegation visited Iran recently and discussed the possibility of restoring Opening the embassy and exchanging diplomatic representation. It is assumed that the fifth round, which will take place within two weeks in Iraq, will witness a discussion of non-bilateral issues, ie those related to regional issues, but on the basis of the return of stability and foreign presence in it. Will Lebanon be a guest on this tour?

The answer, although positive, but not in the form of what is being portrayed in Lebanon, is that the Iranian is still on its firm position by refusing to negotiate on behalf of its allies, whether in Lebanon or Yemen, because they know the details of their political reality, but they can help whenever they are asked to do so.

In conclusion, the mere fact that the rounds of negotiations, whether in Vienna or Iraq, produce positive results, inevitably means a solution to the region. But matters remain subject to their conclusions, and we have to wait for what the results of the Saudi-Iranian negotiations will come out with, and here is the point.





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