The German election marathon is drawing to a close, and the curtain is coming down on the era of Angela Merkel, but the future of her Christian Union leader is open.
Armin Laschet, the candidate of the Christian Union for the chancellorship, is the most commentator on the results of the elections in Germany, and the most affected by them, whether negatively or positively, and the future of the party after Merkel, depends on the performance of the sixty-year-old in the current poll.
During the past months, Laschet reached the candidacy ticket for the Christian Union after internal crises and a struggle with his most popular rival, Marcus Söder, and stuck to the nomination at a time when the calls for his resignation were louder than the noise of the election campaign.
In this report, “Al-Ain News” monitors the scenarios that await Laschet, hours before the end point; As the fate of Merkel’s successor at the head of the Christian Union will become open to three and no fourth doors, after the elections reveal their potential, and everyone knows their results.
Although the politicians of the Christian Union completely ignore talking about what could happen in the corridors of the Christian bloc on Sunday evening, looking forward to the very near future is not difficult, in light of the tensions and difficulties that the bloc faces after Merkel’s exit from the scene.
In this context, one of the prominent members of the union said in a press statement, preferring to remain anonymous, “It is not about optimism. The union wants to prevent any discussion about the post-election phase, to push the members to ignore the weak percentage of polls.”
The source, who is a member of the executive body of the Christian bloc, continued, “Lacet’s political fate depends on the outcome of the elections. For this reason, three scenarios are currently being discussed in the union, even if no one wants to talk about it publicly at this delicate stage of the electoral campaign.”
The first scenario..Victory
If the Christian Union overcomes the hurdle of voting and achieves a victory that makes it again the number one power in Germany for the next four years, no attempts will be made to oust Laschet from the top of the bloc, despite the discontent of some politicians with him and the path of the bloc.
In this context, a member of the union’s executive body told Bild newspaper: “The top priority in this case is to form a government.” He added that “the occupation of the Chancellery comes above all else. Therefore, there will be consensus to strengthen Laschet’s position.”
“This will happen, even if the union achieves overall voter rates below 30%, but with the first place,” says the party leader.
Therefore, things will go in this scenario as usual, as Laschet obtains the support of the bloc’s supreme body in a meeting tomorrow, Monday, and then elects the next day a new leader for the parliamentary bloc of the Christian Union, as usual steps to strengthen his position in the face of other parties during the negotiations to form the ruling coalition.
The second scenario… Half a defeat
in the event that the Christian Union loses the ballot, by a narrow margin; A point, for example, or a tie in votes with the Social Democratic Party, when Laschet’s situation in the corridors of the bloc would be different.
Sources within the Christian Union told Bild, “In this situation, there will still be some hope of wresting the chancellery from the Social Democrats, but the weak result will stir the ambitions of some politicians who reject Laschet, and the internal situation will become foggy and no one can predict what can happen.”
And the sources added, “In the Laschet camp, there will be clear demands after weakening the chancellorship candidate, Laschet, in the face of other parties, and the need to rally around him, in light of the possibility of taking over the chancellery.”
In such a situation, the same sources say, “Laschet can continue at the head of the Christian Union for a temporary period, until the formation of the government, and the matter becomes clear.”
The third scenario..the fall
In this scenario, the Christian Union would clearly lose to the SPD, and thus lose any chance of taking over the chancellorship.
In this context, a politician in the union said in press statements, also preferring to remain anonymous: “In this case, no stone will remain in its place in the bloc.”
“It is expected that Söder’s supporters will protest strongly and open Laschet’s candidacy file at the expense of the most popular Bavarian politician,” he added.
In the case of this terrifying scenario, political expert Karl Rudolf Kurti believes that the risk of a coup against Laschet will be raised in the Christian Union, adding, in statements to the German newspaper, “Die Welt”: “I do not rule out the possibility of an atmosphere of coup d’etat in the event of a very bad outcome.”
And last Tuesday, a poll published by the newspaper “Augsburger Allgemeine” showed that 66 percent of German citizens did not see enough support from Söder Laschet during the election campaign.
According to sources who spoke to Die Welt, in this third scenario, Laschet would automatically be outside the political leadership of the Christian Alliance.