Citizen – Riyadh
A quarterly survey conducted by “Reuters” showed that the six economies in the Gulf Cooperation Council are expected to recover and grow between 2 and 3% this year.
The survey predicted that the two largest economies in the region, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, would grow by more than 4% next year.
These expectations come after sharp declines last year in the wake of the collapse in oil prices and the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, while analysts expected that Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait would benefit from the OPEC + agreement to boost oil production.
“Our main assumption was that a long-term agreement would be reached, and we raised our forecasts for 2022 on the back of baseline adjustments that will enable the UAE, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia to increase oil production and global market shares from May 2022,” said Monica Malik, chief economist at ADCB. “.
The poll, which was conducted from July 5 to 26, estimated the growth of Saudi Arabia’s economy at 2.3% on average this year, slightly lower than an expectation of 2.4% in a similar poll three months ago.
The poll expected that the largest economy in the Middle East and the largest oil exporter in the world would grow 4.3% in 2022, an adjustment to an increase of 100 basis points. Growth for 2023 was revised up by 30 basis points to 3.3%.
Kuwait and UAE
The UAE economy is expected to grow by 2.3% this year, unchanged from the previous estimate, 4.2% next year and 3.4% in 2023, after adjusting for an increase of 60 basis points and ten basis points, respectively.
Kuwait’s GDP growth forecast in 2021 improved by 60 basis points to 2.4%, while growth forecasts next year were boosted by 110 basis points to 4.6%. Growth is expected to increase by 10 basis points in 2023 to 3%.
Qatar’s growth forecast for this year fell by 30 basis points to 2.5%. The growth forecast for next year did not change to remain at 3.6%, while it decreased by 40 basis points to 2.7% for 2023.
The growth forecast for Oman was revised up by 20 basis points to 2.1% this year, a ten basis point increase to 3.3% next year, and a decrease of 20 basis points in 2023 to 2.2%.
The growth forecast for Bahrain for this year and next year did not change at 2.9%, while it reduced the growth forecast in 2023 by 30 points to 2.4%.