The “Jurisprudence of Priorities” Summit between Baghdad and Washington
Al-Kazemi is looking for an exit… and Biden is looking for an entrance
Tuesday – 17 Dhul-Hijjah 1442 AH – 27 July 2021 AD Issue No. [
Baghdad: «Middle East»
And before his arrival at the summit venue and before shaking hands with US President Joe Biden on the way imposed by the “Corona” epidemic; There is no doubt that Al-Kazemi remembered the fatty dinners that former US Secretary of State Colin Powell used to eat at the leaders’ tables, or the sword of Imam Ali bin Abi Talib as a gift by one of the former prime ministers to Donald Rumsfeld during the days when he was the liberator of Baghdad and not its occupier. He will remember the “Gobi” dance performed by the current US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin during his excellent service in Iraq, those days before he was crowned a four-star general and Minister of Defense.
The occasion on which Al-Kazemi will remember all these photos is not the meeting with Biden, the former friend of Iraq in the days who was a senator who strongly supported the overthrow of Saddam Hussein’s regime and the current president is looking for an entrance to the survival of his forces in Iraq under various names or pretexts; Rather, it is because it is now bearing alone the mistakes and sins of all those leaders and leaders that cheered the Americans before the start of the resistance movements against them and their squandering of all possible opportunities to build a new Iraq.
Al-Kazemi carries from the files what the mountains are burdened with, in light of a sharp collision of political wills in his country. not only this; Rather, Al-Kazemi must alone bear the responsibility for all the mistakes and sins that were committed after everyone disavowed what happened; Perhaps with the exception of one party in Iraq that still believes in a strategic friendship with the Americans; They are the Kurds. And Al-Kazemi accepted the responsibility of assigning him as prime minister last year in light of the crisis of demonstrations and their dangerous consequences, in order to cross the country to a safe future, so he is thrown into the pain alone, provided he does not get wet; Which makes his mission with Biden one of the most dangerous tasks, and its summary is the search for a way out of the state of affairs in the country.
The difference between Al-Kazemi and Biden in terms of characterizing the American presence in Iraq is a difference in the “jurisprudence of priorities” between the two parties regarding the pressures that each party is subjected to. Biden faces external pressures while changing the course of the American strategy, and Al-Kazemi faces internal pressures; Including removing old photos from memory as a political “photoshop”.
In the context of knowing the nature of the priorities of the two sides; Specialized Iraqi experts have their own view of what could happen. In this context; Retired Major General Imad Alo, an adviser to the European Counter-Terrorism Center, told Asharq Al-Awsat that “what will result from this dialogue from the agreement will be the legal paper on which President Biden will rely in urging the Senate to end the mandate that it passed on.” For many years, which allows the US president to use force in Iraq.” Alo stressed that «the Iraqi political environment is currently governed by 3 different tracks or positions regarding the US military presence; Where there is the position expressed by the armed factions loyal to Iran, which is the complete withdrawal of US forces from Iraq in line with the Iranian position that demands that. And there is the position represented by the Sunni component, which is the demand for the survival of part of the American forces, and it does not insist on the demand for a permanent presence of the Americans on Iraqi soil. While the third position is the Kurdish position in the Kurdistan region, which demands that the Americans remain in Iraq; And even the establishment of American bases on Iraqi territory, and the establishment of these bases on the territory of Kurdistan is welcome.”
Major General Alo continues that “the Iraqi government is trying hard to arrange the situation legally based on the (Sofa Agreement) of 2008 and the security agreement that led to the withdrawal of US forces at the end of 2011. However, the position of the US administration seems to be moving towards changing the addresses and framework of the American presence in Iraq. , which means trying to take positions that the Iraqi and American parties would agree to, with the withdrawal of small numbers of American soldiers, and the issuance of a statement confirming this, which is nothing more than a media statement; Where US forces remain for many purposes, including support, support, training, equipping and maintaining F-16 aircraft, and US forces will also remain under the cover of NATO, whose number is scheduled to increase from 500 to more than 4000 elements for training and advice purposes, which confirms that the issue will not deviate from the media frenzy by achieving a media victory for Al-Kazemi; Because the decision in the end will remain with the United States of America.”
turn; The strategic expert and former advisor at the Iraqi Ministry of Defense, Maan al-Jubouri, told Asharq Al-Awsat that “what will happen are in fact moderate positions; Because America knows that Al-Kazemi is suffering from the pressure of the armed factions and parties close to the Iranian side, and it is expected to withdraw most of its combat forces and maintain a limited percentage to protect the American embassy on the one hand, as well as to protect the trainers and technicians; Because it does not depend on the Iraqi government to provide them with protection.” Al-Jubouri added, “Al-Kazemi will return with a relative victory granted to him by the United States, with the aim of strengthening his position towards the armed factions and the forces close to them.”