Hariri and his ally are in a “state of weightlessness” after the gates of Damascus and Riyadh were closed in their faces… and two government “scenarios” are on the horizon


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As expected, Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri apologized for continuing the process of forming a government. He paved the way for this, by spreading a media atmosphere close to him, which made this apology more likely, especially in the recent days, which preceded the announcement of the Prime Minister-designate relinquishing his governmental mission.

If this announcement had no significant impact, among the internal and external activists active on the line of forming the prospective government, and here concerned sources, who participated in one of the meetings held by the French presidential envoy, Patrick Dorrell, during his last tour in the past few days in Lebanon reveal that he mixed the views of Who met them, regarding the post-“apology” stage, and who will succeed Hariri, before announcing his apology. This indicates that the French side is continuing the process of putting pressure on the various parties involved in forming the Lebanese government, in order to reach an agreement, leading to its expected birth.

What confirms the seriousness of the continuation of the French move towards Lebanon, are the French preparations (for the international conference in support of Lebanon), to be held on the fourth of next August.

So, Hariri’s apology did not change the international track towards Lebanon, and roadblocks, attempts to paralyze the country, and provocations in sensitive areas, which in turn may lead to sectarian problems, will not work.

Even the “mobilization-election” positions issued by the club of former prime ministers, and some Sunni politicians, calling for not agreeing to put forward any name for a designated prime minister other than Hariri, are nothing but “soap bubbles” and “agreement of auctions” in the two stages before the parliamentary elections. And while waiting for the international position on the governmental affairs in Lebanon to be clarified at the same time, and nothing but.

It is known that the former prime minister resigned from his national duty, in the wake of the “protests of October 17, 2019,” despite his appeal from the most prominent Lebanese parties, after abandoning his duty at that delicate stage in which the country passed, but he insisted on “joining the ranks of the revolutionaries.” Then he finally announced an apology for the “assignment”, nine months after his constitutional mandate. Consequently, Hariri and his followers stop stirring up sectarian and sectarian strife, by targeting President Michel Aoun and Hezbollah, especially since the latter He provided all facilities for the success of Hariri’s mission, which was rejected by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, and no influential Sunni country in Lebanon and the region adopted him. His tours to Turkey, Egypt, and the United Arab Emirates did not work, in securing a Sunni incubator for him, and support for his government interests. “Madness.” This is the recent emergence of the Saudi-Emirati dispute, and there is no doubt that all of these reasons prompted Hariri to take his decisive position by apologizing. These tours confirm that the obstacles facing Hariri’s mission were external, not internal, as he claims. Otherwise, what are the reasons that lead to Hariri’s mission? I prompted him to do the mentioned tours, and e Is there an Egyptian, Emirati or Turkish influence on President Aoun, whom Hariri accuses of obstruction?

Certainly, these allegations will not deceive local and non-local public opinion, and the evidence is that the popular reactions, following Hariri’s apology, were less than shy, so his followers cut off some sensitive roads, such as the Beirut-South Road, in an attempt to provoke Hezbollah’s public, however As usual, it has failed, and will not block the process of assigning a new prime minister, in the wake of the binding parliamentary consultations that the President of the Republic will conduct at Baabda Palace soon, in compliance with the constitution, according to the confirmation of well-informed sources.

In this regard, a relevant reference in the resistance team confirms that its political team and its allies have studied all possibilities for a policy of obstruction and attempts to create a government vacuum in the country. He expected the success of the “scenario” from two:

The first – The reference does not rule out the assignment of a new prime minister, who is from outside the “political club”, such as restoring the experience of Ambassador Mustafa Adeeb, or a figure similar to him, who is not provocative to the Hariri family and heads of government, and who is not a candidate for the upcoming parliamentary elections, as well as enjoying international support. It can stop the economic collapse, and hold elections. The reference does not rule out bringing its date to next February.

The second – activating the government of Prime Minister Hassan Diab, as it is the only legal framework that is currently in place, and does not require a new assignment, in the event that Hariri and those around him price the sectarian discourse, to block the path to any new assignment. This is if they succeeded in pressuring Sunni MPs not to name any new designated president other than Hariri.

Then, he does not rule out activating the caretaker government and expanding its powers, to complete two specific tasks, stopping the “collapse” and holding “elections”, not only, but there is a main obstacle to the success of this “scenario”, which is Diab’s requirement, to grant him a mandate from the House of Representatives to activate his government, the matter Which President Nabih Berri considers a constitutional heresy, and the reference is likely that the government’s horizon will not remain blocked, and this “scenario” may succeed if efforts are combined and some mutual concessions are made, the reference concludes.

Regardless of which of the two “scenarios”, the balance will prevail. The only constant remains the demise of “political Hariri”, especially after the Saudi door was closed to the “future president”, and the Syrian door to his main ally, so they became in a state of imbalance, according to Political reference expression.


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