- Phil Dawkes
- BBC Sport
This summer, 24 countries will participate in the European Championship. But only one team will win. Who is this team that will win the cup?
Will Portugal defend the cup they won five years ago? Can Germany or Spain win the World Cup for the fourth time on a record? Could there be another shock in the Greek way relative to the surprise of the Greek team in 2004?
Or will England finally be able to win some silver again?
Looking at the trends, stats and patterns available from previous tournaments, BBC Sport has ruled out 23 countries and decided which team will be crowned European champions at Wembley in London on 11 July.
However, our advice is that you probably don’t take this seriously. It’s basically just a little fun.
With these data in mind, we put forward the things that the 2020 winners should have done…
We’ll start with a simple but self-evident possibility.
Since the play-offs began in the qualifying process for the 1996 European Football Championship in England, no team that reached the finals through this method had been able to win the cup.
Removing the countries that made it to the UEFA EURO 2020 finals through the play-off matches excludes four teams from our list.
Unfortunately, this means a quick exit for Scotland, who are participating in their first major tournament finals since the 1998 World Cup in France.
20 young players ready for Euro 2020 – including Spader, new player Cafu and Kevin De Bruyne.
Top qualified group المجموعة
The 1996 tournament saw the finals expanded from 8 to 16 teams for the first time, meaning that the top two teams from each qualifying group were moved to just one group.
Since that time, it has been proven that the top of the qualifying group is the rite of passage for obtaining the qualifications of the accreditation in force in the country, knowing that each potential winner took first place in the scheduled matches.
This narrows the scope of entries significantly, limiting it to 10 winning groups in the Euro 2020 qualifiers while also leading to some serious losses.
The current title holders, Portugal, as well as the Netherlands and Denmark, winners in 1988 and 1992, respectively, have disappeared from the scene. The Wales County team in the United Kingdom was also eliminated from the race.
Don’t be a host
In the ten tournaments organized since 1980, only one team has won the cup on home soil – the French team inspired by Michel Platini in 1984.
But in light of the tournament being organized in separate regions of the European continent, and given that 12 countries will host these football matches, the reduction of the countries hosting them makes the crowding in the stadiums less and more, with four victims, including two teams who won three times, namely Germany and Spain .
England will also be left out of the mix (and that team is supposed to be eliminated by penalty kicks), which means Three Lions fans will suffer at least 56 years of humiliation by the time the World Cup is held in Qatar in 2022.
Appeared in previous finals
Five of the six previous European Championship winners have participated in previous finals. The only deviation from this rule is Greece, which shocked the continent in a big way in 2004 when many argued that it represented the biggest anomaly in the history of world football.
Before that tournament was held in Portugal, it was speculated that the Greek team’s chances of winning the cup were poor, given that it had not won a match in a major final.
When applying these criteria, we find that Croatia, Poland, Switzerland and Ukraine are lagging behind, which makes us very happy with the arrival of two long-awaited clubs to the final confrontation.
Save a lot of Champions League players
Finally, to settle this, we relied on the standards adopted in the heavyweight category in the weightlifting game.
All 10 major tournament winners so far this century, namely the World Cup and European Championships, topped the top five countries in terms of number of junior players in the Champions League during the previous season.
For example, when organizing the last European Football Championship, the Portuguese national team was ranked in the fifth tier, which allowed for 27 new players to be included in the 2015-16 UEFA Champions League. The French national team won the 2018 World Cup and provided 49 players from the Champions League during the 2017-18 season, the third number recorded.
The folks at Nielsen’s parent company Graysnot had to grapple with the numbers and discovered that the top five countries with players for the Champions League were France (63 starters), Brazil (58), Spain (51), Germany (38) and Ukraine (32). Belgium ranked 12th with 18 novice players.
After all this research and sifting, our predictions go largely in our unscientific way that takes into account the records of the World Cup winning teams and other teams that have already had the advantage, that France will win the Euro 2020
Graphic design by Johnny Sodah