Certainly, the total or partial lifting of subsidies will lead to a significant increase in the price of gasoline, which, before the subsidy was lifted, its price increased. How much gasoline Lebanon imports annually? What were the prices a year ago and today? What is the expected price if the subsidy is completely removed? Questions answered by “Information International” in a study (attached tables) about the development of gasoline prices and expectations of its arrival in the event of lifting subsidies.
Import of gasoline
Lebanon imports through private companies its need of 98 and 95 octane gasoline. The imported quantities and prices decreased in 2020 compared to 2019, as a result of the closings in Lebanon, and also as a result of the global price decline.
Consumption decreased from 119 million plates to 103.4 million plates, a decrease of 15.6 million plates, by 13.1 percent. In terms of value and as a result of the global decline in prices, they fell from $ 1.331 million to $ 827 million. That is, a decrease of 504 million, or 37.8 percent.
When the global price of gasoline decreased, as happened in the months of March, April and May 2020, the government decided to increase the customs fees and the internal consumption fee, so it increased from 5060 pounds per tin to 12,630 pounds. When world prices rose again, fees were reduced.
Despite the continued support, the price of gasoline rose from May 2020 to May 2021, from 23,500 liras to 39,700 liras. That is, an increase of 16,200 liras. The reason for this increase is an increase in the value of the unsupported 10 percent, from 4000 to 10800 pounds, and an increase in the global price from 5180 pounds to 16,070 pounds.
As a result, in the event that the subsidies are lifted, prices stabilized globally, and the dollar exchange rate stabilized at 13,000 pounds, the price of gasoline could reach about 151,000 pounds.