tayyar.org – Corona … Good news to the Lebanese!

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The director of Rafic Hariri University Hospital, Dr. Firas Abyad, tweeted: “In Lebanon, most of the corona numbers have improved: the daily number of new cases, the rate of positive examinations, hospitalizations, and the number of deaths.

Unfortunately, the data that is shared publicly in the Ministry of Health report is not sufficient to accurately determine the causes of this improvement, but some of them may be as follows: The restrictions imposed early this year certainly helped the numbers drop.

However, the current high level of population movement and timid compliance with safety measures, such as wearing a muzzle, could not be fundamentally contributing factors to the noticeable and sustained improvement.

It can be estimated based on some local studies that about 40% of the population has been infected. Adding the number of people who received the vaccine, 45% of the population gained immunity.

This number is still far from the threshold needed to reach herd immunity, but it helps limit the spread of community infection. But it is important to note that the current waves of infection in some countries, such as Brazil and India, are occurring in societies that had reached nearly 50% of the acquired immunity of their populations.

The cause of the spread is new virus mutations, which could happen in other countries, including Lebanon. The acquisition of the vaccine by specific age groups may explain the decrease in deaths, but the total number of vaccinated people does not explain the decrease in daily cases. Other factors have been suggested, such as a change in the weather, but the Corona virus is not seasonal, as countries close to and with a similar climate, such as Turkey, announce the number of record cases. Perhaps the real explanation is a mixture of the above. It is unfortunate that epidemiologists at our prestigious universities do not have access to the data, so this could help in gaining a better understanding of the current situation.

Nevertheless, we should be thankful for this improvement in numbers, at least something good is happening for us. ”

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