A decline in injuries … Is the end of the Corona pandemic on the horizon? | Politics and Economy | In-depth analyzes with a broader perspective from DW | DW


With the beginning of the spring season, many patience reached its limit, and everyone needs urgent answers: When does the gradual easing of Corona prevention measures begin, when is the date for getting the vaccine, and when does this horror series end?

The first happy news came from the World Health Organization (WHO) from its European director, the Belgian Hans Henri Kluckh, who said in an interview with Danish television that the pandemic “can be overcome within months.”


Kluckh’s words caused a heated discussion on social media and media sites, which forced the Regional Director of the Media Health Organization in Europe to retreat from what he said. In another interview, this time with German Channel 2 (ZDF), Explaining that he “never said that,” and that what he said is that no one can predict when the pandemic will end.

“I will say – on the basis of the working hypothesis – that with the beginning of 2022 we will have left the pandemic behind us,” Kluckh said, adding that the Corona virus will remain with us, but we will not need strong and annoying measures..

Warning from German experts

The supposed opinion (on the Danish channel) caused a wave of surprise by experts and virologists. On Twitter, a German virologist and researcher at the Charité Hospital in Berlin, Professor Christian Dorsten, posted a tweet in which he rejected expectations of the virus’s weakness. The well-known German scientist wrote in his tweet, saying: “No, there are still no signs of a mutation and a weakness in the virus. These are just speculation.“.

Dorsten had made it clear in a previous interview with the German (NDR) channel, that the possibility of weakening the virus will take longer, and that it will remain with us, but it will appear in certain areas only. He also added, in another interview with the magazine “Der Spiegel”, that the situation of the Corona pandemic will be difficult during 2021.

The same position is supported by an epidemiologist and politician of the German Social Democratic Party, Karl Lauterbach. He warns against rushing to reduce the preventive measures that some politicians and heads of state governments want to take. For his part, Bavarian Prime Minister Marcus Söder warned in an interview with Bavarian radio against falling into what is like a “euphoria” to ease the measures.

Injury numbers

Globally, the number of HIV infections reached 114 million as of February, about 2.5 million died as a result of infection, while more than 64.4 million infected people recovered..

These figures prompt experts to warn of the dangers of the third wave, which has already begun to strike various countries around the world. Nevertheless, there is a state of relaxation around the world. According to the World Health Organization, the number of injuries around the world has decreased significantly for two months.

Since mid-January, about 700,000 people have been infected around the world every day, which is half the number in the previous month, and the number of deaths has decreased by half..

WHO director Tedros Adhanom Gerbasius is cautiously optimistic about these numbers, describing them as “signs of hope.” “This change reminds us that, despite discussions about vaccines, we can control the Covid 19 virus through the health measures that we take. This is exactly what many countries have done.“.

Why are casualty numbers dropping?

There are many reasons for the decrease in the numbers of infections around the world, and certainly the emergence of vaccines cannot be the first reason for this, as few countries around the world have been able to vaccinate their citizens and the groups at risk from them, while other countries, including European ones, have not been able to widely distribute the vaccine. However, maintaining social distancing, taking health measures and quarantine, and reducing these measures slowly and with deliberate steps.

In some countries, such as the United States and Brazil, many people there have contracted the virus, to the point of the emergence of some kind of herd immunity. Some researchers believe that the Corona virus will gradually weaken significantly in the medium term due to mutations, even if this seems strange at the present time..

In mid-February, researchers under the leadership of researcher Jenny Lavina from the University of Atlanta in the United States of America published a study in the scientific journal, “Science”. The study expects that the Corona virus will be endemic through transformations, that is, it will appear in specific regions of the world only, and the state of terror that caused it will end, and the study also expected that the vaccination operations will accelerate the disappearance of the virus as a global phenomenon..

The second wave of Spanish flu after World War I caused the largest number of deaths.

The second wave of Spanish flu after World War I caused the largest number of deaths.

Flu pandemics have suddenly disappeared

This speculation is confirmed by the assessment of epidemiologist Klaus Stoher, who headed the World Health Organization’s global influenza program and was also the coordinator of SARS research there. According to Stuhr, past flu experiences have clearly shown that the infection rate can abruptly subside. The influenza pandemic in 1957 that killed four million people disappeared, and the Hong Kong flu in 1968 that killed three million people. The two epidemics vanished just as quickly as they appeared.

The second wave of the Spanish flu after the First World War also witnessed the largest number of deaths, as more than 50 million people died between 1918/19 and 1920. The third wave subsided quickly, but the cause of death did not disappear. To this day, the H1N1 virus appears weakly in normal influenza.

Does Corona turn into an ordinary guest?

In the medium term, the SARS-CoV-2 virus can also take a similar path, as the Corona virus is supposed to still exist, to appear locally. If he is weakened through mutations, then he will lose more of the terror he has caused around the world. But until then, the balance between restrictions to control it and loosening of measures will remain necessary.

Alexander Freund / Abbas Al-Khashali


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