Oil futures rose to the highest in a year, ignoring the rise in the US dollar index to the highest in two months

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Oil futures rose to the highest in a year, ignoring the rise in the US dollar index to the highest in two months

Crude oil futures fluctuated in a narrow range sloping to an upward trend during the Asian session, to witness Nemex crude contracts rising to their highest since January 22, 2020, and Brent crude contracts rising to their highest since February 20, 2020, when they tested their highest since 28 From January 2020, overlooking the rise of the US dollar index to the highest since the beginning of December 2020, according to the inverse relationship between them on the cusp of developments and economic data expected today, Friday, by the US economy, the largest producer and consumer of oil in the world, and in the shadow of market pricing for the strength of the winter storm In the northeastern United States and the OPEC + decision.

At 05:34 am GMT, the futures contract for crude oil “NEMEX” for next March delivery increased by 0.32% to trade at levels of $ 56.64 a barrel compared to the opening at $ 56.46 a barrel, knowing that the contracts started the session on a price gap. Bullishness, after closing yesterday’s trading at $ 56.23 a barrel.

Also, futures contracts for Brent crude for April delivery rose 0.10% to trade at $ 59.23 a barrel, compared to the opening at $ 59.17 a barrel, knowing that the contracts also started trading on a rising price gap after closing yesterday’s trading at $ 58.84 a barrel, while it rose The US dollar index 0.10% to 91.57 compared to the opening at 91.48, knowing that the index ended yesterday’s trading at 91.53 levels.

Investors are currently awaiting the US economy to disclose labor market data with the release of the employment change index reading for sectors other than agricultural, which may reflect 77,000 added jobs compared to the loss of 140,000 jobs last December, while the average income index reading in At the time, growth slowed to 0.3% from 0.8%, in conjunction with the unemployment rate reading showing stability at 6.7% in January.

This comes in conjunction with the release of the merchandise trade balance reading, which may explain the contraction of the deficit to a value of $ 66.0 billion compared to $ 68.1 billion last November, and before we witness the disclosure of the consumer credit index reading, which may reflect a decline to $ 12.1 billion. A billion versus $ 15.3 billion in November. Other than that, last Wednesday we followed up on the Democratic Party’s passage in the House of Representatives of the budget bill.

This is supposed to pave the way for the approval of the stimulus package in Congress that was called by US President Joe Biden early this year and called it the “American rescue plan” worth $ 1.9 trillion, with 218 members approved in exchange for the refusal of 212 members of the new budget bill, which opens The road to obtaining Senate approval for the stimulus package by a simple majority instead of passing it by 60 votes in the Senate.

It is noteworthy that a group of Republicans members of the Senate called on US President Biden recently to reduce his plan and put forward an alternative plan worth $ 618 billion, followed by Biden’s statement that the Republican proposal opposing his stimulus plan neglects many important aspects of the economy, which clearly showed the existing disagreement between The poles of US policy, the ruling Democratic Party and the Republican Party, about the size of the stimulus package and reinforced concern about delaying its approval.

Other than that, we watched on Wednesday. The US Energy Information Administration’s report on oil inventories for the week that passed on January 29 showed that the deficit narrowed to about 1.0 million barrels compared to about 9.9 million barrels in the previous weekly reading, in contrast to expectations that the deficit narrowed to 0.6 million barrels. Stocks fell to 475.7 million barrels, while stocks are still 4% higher than the average of the past five years for this time of year.

As indicated by the US Energy Information Administration report at the time, stocks of motor fuel in the United States, the largest global energy consumer, rose by 4.5 million barrels, while stocks were 1% less than the average of the past five years for this time of the year, while stocks of distilled derivatives that include Little change, but inventories are still 8% higher than the average of the past five years for this time of year.

On the other hand, we also followed on Wednesday the proceedings of the meeting of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries OPEC and its oil-producing allies from outside the organization, led by Russia, the second largest oil producer in the world, or what has become known as “OPEC +”, which resulted in the committee remaining at the levels of production cuts. At 7.2 million barrels per day during March, as part of efforts to quickly get rid of the oil surplus left by the Corona pandemic.

This comes hours after the implementation of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the third largest oil producer in the world and the largest producer with OPEC and the largest oil exporter in the world and OPEC, its pledge to voluntarily reduce its production by one million barrels per day during the month of Shayat / February, which came into effect at the beginning of this month and is scheduled To continue during next March as part of the efforts to boost crude oil prices, which are currently hovering at their highest in a year.

It is noteworthy that OPEC + tended to reduce production to support oil prices and reduce the surplus supply since the beginning of 2017, and the cuts deepened to a record level in the middle of 2020 to 9.7 million barrels per day due to the repercussions of the outbreak of the coronavirus and the closure that we witnessed in most global economies at the time, which led to a decline in demand for gasoline and jet fuel, It was planned to reduce the reduction by another 2 million barrels per day during the first quarter of this year.

However, OPEC + agreed in December to reduce the production cut by 500 thousand barrels per day only to 7.2 million barrels per day during January, and to review the matter at the monthly meeting of the group in light of the evaluation and study of the consequences of the outbreak of the second wave of the Corona virus in a chapter Winter and the closures that we are seeing in many countries, which may expand, especially with concern about the recent emergence of new strains of coronavirus.

This comes in conjunction with the continuing distribution campaigns of Corona vaccines in a number of countries around the world, and the growing optimism in the financial markets regarding the global economy’s recovery from the Corona pandemic, and according to the latest figures issued by the World Health Organization, the number of cases infected with the Coronavirus has increased to nearly 103.99 million and 2,260,259 died. People killed in 223 countries.

According to Baker Hughes’ weekly reports released last Friday, oil drilling and drilling rigs operating in the United States increased by 6 platforms for a total of 295 platforms, reflecting the succession of rally rallies that stopped ten weeks ago for the first time in nine weeks at the time before resuming the altitude marches. Notice that the oil drilling and drilling platforms operating in America have decreased by 411 since March 13th.

It is noteworthy that US production stabilized last week at levels of 10.9 million barrels per day, the lowest level since the week ending on November 13, 2020, and production still reflects a decline of 2.2 million barrels per day, or 20% from the highest ever at 13.1 million barrels per day. In March 2020, due to the recent closure of drilling and exploration rigs due to the widening gap between the cost of extraction and the selling price, especially after the Corona pandemic.







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