“New cases of Covid-19 are declining rapidly around the world, mobility statistics have reached their lowest levels and are beginning to improve, and in countries outside the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, refineries are already operating as strongly as they were before Covid-19,” Morgan Stanley said.
The bank said that the rapid drawdown of inventories and the rise in price differentials present in the North Sea market, among other factors, indicated an improvement in the market.
Morgan Stanley increased its forecast for Brent prices in the second half of the year from $ 60 a barrel to a range of $ 65 to $ 70 a barrel, with a peak of $ 70 in the third quarter.
The bank also raised its forecast for Brent prices in the second quarter to 65 dollars a barrel from 55 dollars, and increased its forecast for the fourth quarter to 65 dollars from 60 dollars.
He explained that demand will probably improve by about four million barrels per day by the end of the year, that stocks will return to normal and the energy surplus will decrease significantly.