Actual injuries are seven times higher than the reported


Until mid-December, the “community immunity” rate was estimated at 16%, according to a study conducted by the Islamic Health Authority in cooperation with the Ministry of Health. This was before the “explosion” of daily injuries and the great outbreak of the epidemic, which yesterday recorded 63 deaths, bringing the total number of victims to 3,866, and 3,136 new infections (18 of them imported) out of 20 thousand and 706 examinations.The director general of the authority, the author of the study, Dr. Abbas Hoballah, explained to “Al-Akhbar” that if the data of this study were based and projected on the great spread witnessed by the country in the past two months, “we suggest that the percentage of the injured may have reached 35%”, pointing out that the authority in A second study is being prepared that will complete the course of the first and keep pace with developments in the epidemiological reality.
It is true that the study that monitored the percentage of immune antibodies in 2,177 samples preceded the spread of the British strain that was mutated from the virus, which has a greater ability to spread by 70% than the “original” virus and is currently controlling infections. However, these numbers would shed light on aspects of Several should be stopped.
To begin with, the study concludes that only 2% of those found to have “embraced” IgG antibodies were aware of their infection, while 98% were unaware of their exposure to the virus “either because they did not have symptoms, or because some of them did not resort to performing the pcr test and other reasons.” .
It was estimated that up to December 15, the number of those infected with the virus was 774 thousand, or 16% of the total residents whose number (according to the study) was estimated at four million and 842 thousand, noting that the Ministry of Health figures on confirmed cases up to the same date were referring to 105 thousand and 430 infected persons. In practice, this means that the number of actual injuries exceeds those confirmed by the Ministry of Health by more than seven times, and that the Ministry of Health has proven only about 13.6% of the actual injuries. This reinforces what is being circulated by those concerned with the Corona file that the actual numbers of injuries exceed those proven and announced, which would “shake” the accuracy of the fatality rate and hospitalization rate. It is known that these two percentages are determined according to the number of confirmed, declared, not actual, injuries.
In addition, there are data referred to by the study “that would help in the vaccination process,” according to God’s love, pointing out that the study concluded, for example, that residents of Nabatiyeh and Beirut governorates have 30% and 40% less antibodies respectively than the rest of the regions. , “What can help in the coming stages in determining priorities in giving the vaccine to regions without others.” The same applies to large municipalities, as the study indicates, for example, that the rate of community immunity in the Salam neighborhood reached 18.6%, while it reached 12% in Ghobeiry. Therefore, “This data can be relied upon to re-conduct the survey and assess the situation in order to distribute vaccines. ».

Residents of Nabatiyeh and Beirut have 30% and 40% less antibodies than other areas

In addition, the Minister of Health, Hamad Hassan, announced yesterday that the vaccine will arrive in Lebanon next Saturday afternoon, “so that the vaccination will start on Sunday and the implementation of the national plan will begin on Monday,” pointing out that achieving community immunization by means of the vaccine gives hope in facing the epidemic. Is it possible for the Ministry of Health to adopt a standard for the availability of immune antibodies in former patients to determine the first to receive the vaccine? According to what was previously announced by the Ministry, it does not seem that the option to postpone the vaccination of the former infected is strongly possible, and it may be ruled out further with talk about the existence of mutated strains that do not prevent a “second” infection, as the criterion of “screening” in the first stage is still related to age groups above The 65-plus, as well as people with chronic diseases, health sector workers, and others.

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