The Yemeni writer and political researcher, Abdul Nasser Al-Mawadda, said in an interview with Al-Hurra website: “The situation is very complicated; there is no ground for peace, and a military solution is not possible, and the outside world will not allow any major battles.”
Since 2014, Yemen has been witnessing a war between the Houthis, backed by Iran, and the forces loyal to the government of the internationally recognized President Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi, which began with the Houthis launching an offensive that took control of the capital, Sanaa.
The conflict escalated in March 2015 with the intervention of Saudi Arabia at the head of a military coalition in support of government forces.
And earlier this January, the United States designated the Houthis a terrorist group.
The professor of political sociology, Abd al-Baqi Shamsan, agrees with what the depositor said about the “complicated situation”, ruling out an imminent end to the war, due to the continuing “regional conflict on Yemeni lands, and the ambitions of major countries in their strategic location that witnesses the transit of oil carriers and international trade routes at sea.” “.
Shamsan believes that the war has not started yet, and that “Yemen will not be stabilized at the near or medium level,” adding, “Even if pressure is made to find a settlement under international pressure, the political and social field will explode from time to time, and all groups will not be subject to a central authority.”
Shamsan believes that Yemen is close to the Somali model, expecting it to become “similar to Somali, or for a group of non-united states to emerge in it,” saying that all local and regional parties have agreed to end the legitimate authority.
Winner and loser
The Yemen war is widely seen as a proxy war between Saudi Arabia, a US ally, and Iran.
Abdel Nasser Al-Mawadda said: “The coalition that was formed in 2015 has practically ended, and there is no longer anything but Saudi Arabia.”
In July 2019, reports spread about an Emirati withdrawal from Yemen, until an official in the Gulf state confirmed the reduction of his country’s forces in several areas in Yemen, as part of a “redeployment” plan for “strategic and tactical” reasons.
At the time, the official said that Abu Dhabi was working on moving from a “military force strategy” to a “peace first” plan in this country.
The Washington Institute said that the war had exhausted the UAE militarily, politically and financially, and that it “placed Saudi Arabia in isolation in the face of the Houthis.”
Al-Mawadda believes that the Houthis are so far the party that benefits most from the war. At a time when they control most of the populated areas in Yemen, saying: “They have effectively become the main party in the state, and they have institutions.”
On the other hand, “the actual existence of the government that is recognized by the world disappears and depends for its survival on Saudi support,” according to the depositor, who also said that the war has exhausted Saudi Arabia economically and politically until its options are limited.
In the same context, Shamsan believes that the Yemeni people and Saudi Arabia are the losers in this war: “The people have lost their state and unity, and their living conditions have deteriorated.” The United Nations says Yemen is the largest humanitarian crisis in the world.
As for Saudi Arabia, Shamsan believes that it committed a major strategic error in its management of the war in Yemen, referring to the weapons spread among Yemen’s population of 28 million.
Saudi Arabia is exposed from time to time to drone attacks, the largest of which occurred in September 2019 when the Houthis targeted oil facilities belonging to Aramco in the city of Jeddah.
Today, Haaretz newspaper quoted sources that the United States will deploy the Israeli Iron Dome system on its bases in some Gulf countries.
The United States is expected to soon begin deploying Iron Dome batteries for interceptor missiles, at its bases in the Gulf states, along with some Middle Eastern and European countries, after Israel agreed to this, according to the Israeli newspaper Haaretz.
A hitherto unknown group called the “Promise Brigades of Right” issued a statement, last Saturday, on the Telegram messaging platform, claiming responsibility for an attack targeting the capital, Riyadh, but the coalition thwarted it.
Shamsan indicated the possibility of announcing a new military movement in Yemen, with Iranian support, to threaten the Saudi depth.
Shamsan considers that Iran, which has achieved its goals, is the “only winner in this war” in light of the division between the north and south, and the Houthis’ adoption as the main party in the crisis.
He added, “Iran has now become a major player that cannot be overcome in any negotiation or peaceful solution in the entire region. We must return to it, whether in Yemen, Iraq or Syria.”
Shamsan says that the Arab region lost the fourth capital after Iraq, Lebanon and Syria, in light of the modest performance of the Arab League, the Organization of Islamic Conference and the Gulf Cooperation Council.
Solve the crisis
With regard to close solutions to the crisis in Yemen, under the assumption of a new US administration, the applicant said: “It will not be easy for the Biden administration to fully implement the electoral promises regarding the war.”
He added, “A complete cessation of support for Saudi Arabia, and forcing it to stop the war will be considered a victory for Iran, and this is not in the interest of the United States, because it will upset the strategic balance in the region, which is unacceptable to the United States.”
The depositor expects a temporary halt to the military operations in Yemen, and the conflicting parties will try to hold a new round of negotiations, under US pressure.
But he returned to say: “It is difficult to imagine achieving peace that will remain far away in Yemen, even if negotiations result in the signing of an agreement, which is also unlikely.”
While Shamsan warned against adopting the Iraqi model for resolving the conflict in Yemen, explaining that if the legitimate authority in Yemen accepts a solution based on the representation of groups according to their ideological and geographical affiliations, and thus ensures the representation of Sunnis, Shiites, North and South, then we will create a consensual solution that reproduces forces and does not fuse groups into an identity A national university based on citizenship.
“This will lead to what is happening in Iraq today,” he added. “Iraq has not yet stabilized and is still witnessing bombings and extremist groups such as ISIS are active in it, and the Sunnis also feel excluded, in light of Shiite hegemony over the decision.”