“ For some time, the main topic of the global economy was the economic conflict and soft power between the United States and China … the ( Covid-19) pandemic and its accompanying economic repercussions definitely favored China in this competition,” the center wrote in a report dated December 26. ».
But writer Gordon Ji Chang, best known for his book “The Coming Collapse of China,” a prominent member of the Gatestone Institute for Research and Studies and a member of its advisory board, said that China had not outperformed the United States, and he made it clear that in fact it appears the opposite is true. The center’s expectations, which simulate one of Beijing’s novels, are more than just premature, as they are based on fundamentally wrong assumptions, according to what was reported by the German News Agency.
The “ Center for Economics and Business Research” believes that there will be a “strong post-pandemic recovery in 2021” in the United States. The recovery will decline with annual GDP growth of 9.1 percent from 2022 to 2024, and then the annual growth of the United States will decline to 6.1 percent in the following years.
The center believes that China’s recovery will be more robust, as it will achieve economic growth of 7.5 percent every year until 2025, and this percentage will decrease to 5.4 percent between 2026 and 2030.
Nevertheless, these figures appear to be very optimistic, as government stimulus helps boost current growth as well as net exports. Yet the current “flood of default” in China indicates widespread weakness. Thus, the large increase in spending in Beijing is not sustainable, even with the help of foreign investment. The sustainable part of the economy (consumption) was not as strong as advertised, but is now much weaker due to disease. Even the official figures paint a horrific picture. Retail sales, a good example of consumer domestic demand, decreased by 8.4 percent in the first 11 months of this year compared to the same period in 2019, and car sales decreased by 9.2 percent in the period from January. Until November. The consumer price index in November decreased by 0.5 percent. The Beige Book in China, a widely-watched private survey recently released, shows a clear decline in sales growth in the luxury goods, food and clothing sectors in the fourth quarter of this year compared to the previous quarter. The travel sector has not seen any growth at all, and hospitality has also stalled. In addition, the survey reveals that the business community has an overall bleak outlook for the Chinese economy as a whole, casting doubt on the optimistic outlook for 2021.
Chinese officials say life has returned to normal in China, but this is unlikely. The state media celebrated the crowds in the formerly troubled city of Wuhan, noting that it was the most visited city during the Golden Week holiday at the beginning of October. However, Wuhan reported that holiday revenue is down nearly 30 percent compared to last year. Although the holiday was the longest day this year compared to 2019; Tourism spending nationwide has decreased by a staggering 30 percent as well.
They are far behind the United States, which now has two vaccines that have received final approval from the Food and Drug Administration, namely Pfizer-Biontech and Moderna, and both have efficacy rates of over 90 percent. The Johnson & Johnson vaccine is on the way.
The two Chinese vaccines, “ Sinovac” and “ Sinopharm”, have not completed the third phase of trials yet, and Beijing has been slow to release data. What is interesting is that China is mostly testing vaccines in other countries, including Morocco, Nigeria, the United Arab Emirates, Brazil, Turkey, Indonesia and Chile. The puzzling thing is that the different trials are not conducted with the same protocols. Beijing says people have agreed to receive its vaccines, which are being given to tens of millions, but this is because people have no choice. In Hong Kong, which is under separate administration from China, residents have a choice, and so many of them refuse to receive the vaccine because they do not want to receive the Chinese vaccines.
Today, there is an outbreak of “ Corona” virus throughout China (the last outbreak was in Beijing), and the central government has resorted to closures, mass testing, and contact tracing … and unfortunately, there is no more information than that … The reason for this is determination Chinese Communist Party to control information.
Initially, Chinese officials acknowledged that the disease started in China, but have since hinted that it came from Italy, Spain, India, or frozen food packages. In March, a spokesperson for the State Department stated that the first patient with the virus was in the United States and hinted that the US military had carried the Corona virus to Wuhan, the source of the virus. In short, the “ Center for Economics and Business Research” avoided the true story of China’s response to the Coronavirus. Beijing may have made temporary gains in the immediate aftermath of the virus, but more importantly, it has lost its status almost everywhere due to malicious and harmful actions. For China to achieve a sustainable economic recovery, it needs this support.
“ China’s GDP will surpass the United States sooner or later,” the Chinese newspaper, Global Times, confidently wrote on Dec. 27, in another editorial entitled, “ China’s supremacy over the United States in 2028 is a tepid praise.” Will China really overtake the United States? No, you won’t.