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The study demonstrated that, after hard and fast-paced research, many vaccines are nearing completion, with 12 vaccines nominated in Phase III trials. In fact, early efficacy results have been reported by some teams, although there are some bright spots, and there are more than 80 vaccine candidates in various earlier stages of development, while the new focus of research is on the expected effect of mass vaccination on infection parameters.
A maturity that expects fewer deaths after the Corona vaccine
According to the profile of an ideal vaccination scenario, as developed by WHO (WHO), Which is called the target product profile (TPP), The vaccine should have at least 50% effectiveness, but the preferred efficacy is 70%, and the FDA has determined (FDALower target, from 30% to 50%, while the two vaccines were reported from Pfizer And Modern An efficacy of 90% or more was reported as primary results from a phase III trial.
However, the efficacy of the vaccine is not directly related to the effect of vaccination on the population, as this depends on a combination of logistical, epidemiological and cost factors.
Modeling of vaccine efficacy in the United States
To try to understand what this means, researchers developed a mathematical model of corona transmission, tuning it to parameters that correspond to the characteristics of the US population, and the expected outcomes of infection depending on the age group.
The vaccine has been given priority to health-care workers and high-risk individuals (including those aged 50 and over, or those with comorbidities such as high blood pressure or diabetes), first and foremost, and individuals with Such health conditions have a 2-4 times greater risk of negative consequences. Likewise, advanced age is associated with a sharp increase in disease severity and death.
Children under the age of 18 were not considered eligible, the vaccination priority was assigned to the remaining population according to the guidelines for the distribution of seasonal influenza vaccine, until about 40% of the population was covered, and this includes about 40% of those between the ages of 18 and 19 years, and about half Those between the ages of 20 and 64, and 70% of those aged 65 or over.
Priority vaccination significantly reduces the impact of the pandemic
The researchers found that the effect of vaccination was to reduce the overall infection rate from about 7% to 1.6%. The effect was greatest in the 65 and over age group, with infection rates dropping from 83% to 90%. Among children, the attack rate would be expected to decrease by half due to indirect protection. The number of avoided infections was expected to be greater as pre-existing immunity decreased.
In the vaccinated population, the rate of hospitalization and admission to the ICU was reduced (ICU), And mortality, significantly at 85% and 88%, respectively, even if only 20% of the population were vaccinated, the reductions in hospitalization and mortality would be expected to be around 60% and 64%, respectively.
What are the effects?
This indicates a high impact of an effective vaccine, with a rate of 90% of effectiveness, even with low coverage of disease outcomes and transmission, and conditions for achieving this include high coverage of health care workers (57%) and individuals with underlying diseases (57%), and the implementation of communication campaigns. A strategy to introduce the safety of the vaccine and the protection it provides against the severe Coronavirus.
However, the interim period will still require non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) – including social distancing, wearing masks and washing hands regularly – to reduce the spread of the virus until the vaccine is available and it can be distributed to all eligible.
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