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Wednesday 04 November 2020
From here, some insiders believe that the party resorted to suspending the internal Lebanese entitlements on the ropes of those elections, among them the entitlement to form a government “betting” on the victory of the Democratic candidate, Joe Biden, thinking that Trump’s exit from the White House will stop the pressure on him and protect his head from the sword of sanctions over him. .
However, whatever the outcome of the US elections, and whether Trump won the second term he aspires to, or went in favor of his rival Biden, nothing will change at the level of US foreign policy, specifically with regard to the relationship with Iran and its military arms, which is what most observers and analysts agree on. .
In this context, the former Lebanese ambassador to Washington, Riad Tabbara, explained to Al-Arabiya.net: “The Biden era, if he wins the elections, will closely resemble the era of former President Barack Obama, but Republicans and Democrats agree on the need to expand the nuclear agreement with Iran, to include Three basic points: First, it should not be linked to a specific period of time in order to prevent Iran from producing a nuclear weapon, secondly, the Iranian missile program, and thirdly, to limit the Iranian role in dealing with its neighbors.
He also added, “Trump’s winning of a second presidential term means concluding a new nuclear agreement with Iran, completely different from that of his predecessor Obama, in conjunction with the continuation of the sanctions policy.”
The Lebanese ambassador considered that “the Lebanese betting, especially on the part of Hezbollah, on the results of the American elections, is a lost bet, because the American policy towards Lebanon will remain the same.”
In turn, the head of the Lebanese Information Center and the head of the Foreign Relations Office of the “Lebanese Forces” party in Washington, Joseph Jebeili, told Al-Arabiya.net: “Biden’s victory does not mean stopping the sanctions on Iran and Hezbollah, because he will use them later as basic tools when starting negotiations, in While Trump, who also wants to resume negotiations, will continue at the same time the policy of sanctions until fulfilling the 12 conditions that the United States placed before the Iranian government as a condition for the normalization of relations. ”
The 12 conditions are:
1- Stopping uranium enrichment and not doing plutonium refining, including closing its heavy water reactor.
2- Submitting a report to the International Atomic Energy Agency on the military dimension of its nuclear program and completely abandoning such activities.
3- Granting IAEA inspectors access to all sites in the country.
4- Stopping the deployment of ballistic missiles and the subsequent development of missiles capable of carrying nuclear weapons.
5 – The release of all detainees from the United States and allied and partner countries who were arrested based on fabricated accusations or who were missing on Iranian territory.
6- Dealing with respect with the Iraqi government and not obstructing the dissolution and disarming of the Shiite armed formations.
7-Withdrawal of all forces under Iranian command from Syria.
8- Cessation of support to “terrorist organizations” active in the Middle East, including the Lebanese “Hezbollah”, “Hamas” and “Islamic Jihad” movement, and stopping the military support for the Houthis in Yemen, the “Taliban” movement and “terrorists” Others in Afghanistan, and not harboring al-Qaeda militants.
9 – To stop “support for terrorism” by the “Quds Force” of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard.
10- Abandoning the threatening language in dealing with neighboring countries, many of which are allies of the United States, including the cessation of threats to eliminate Israel and missile attacks on Saudi Arabia.
11. Abandoning the threat of international maritime transport operations.
12- Stop cyber attacks.
The goals themselves
In addition, Jabili pointed out that “the goals of the Republicans and Democrats for the region are the same, and the method of investigation differs. Hence, the Lebanese” bet “, especially on the part of Hezbollah, on the results of the American elections is misplaced, because in the American sense it is a terrorist organization, which means that Whatever the identity of the next US administration, the party remains a terrorist organization, and the policy of sanctions against it began during the era of Democratic President Barack Obama and will continue even if Biden wins. ”
However, he considered, “Biden’s arrival in the White House will mean the emergence of a kind of” American relaxation “towards Iran until his administration takes power in January 2021, and this wasted time until early next year will benefit Iran and Hezbollah to get some gains.
A government default
This comes in conjunction with the faltering formation of the Lebanese government headed by Saad Hariri as a result of the emergence of the game of conditions and counter-conditions on the part of those in charge of the formation and the return of the logic of quotas between the political forces as well as the disagreement over the form of the government, which Prime Minister Saad Hariri insists should consist of 18 ministers, while the team The other wants it expanded, which is what some analyzes have linked to the election results in America.
Mustafa Alloush, a member of the political bureau in the Future Movement, explained to Al-Arabiya.net: “The government consultations have stopped and the atmosphere is negative, but what I confirm is that the wishes of the head of the Free Patriotic Movement, MP Gebran Bassil, to float himself and obtain the obstructed third within the government, in addition to To Hezbollah’s “bet” on the election results that disrupted the government path.
He also considered that “the emergence of new complications in the negotiations to demarcate the maritime borders between Lebanon and Israel, including the emergence of new maps of the disputed areas between the two parties, confirming that there is no government in Lebanon in the foreseeable future, at least before the final results of the American elections are issued.”
He stressed, “The option to apologize for Prime Minister Saad Hariri is not on the table now, but he will not accept that what he refused earlier would be imposed on him.”
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