Jadwa Investment expects, in a report that Al-Arabiya Net has seen a copy of, today, Thursday, that the non-oil GDP will decline by 2.7% in the year 2020, compared to its previous estimate of 3%.
While maintaining its forecast for the oil GDP of 4.8% during the year 2020, Jadwa Investment revised its forecast for the total GDP to a 3.6% decline, marginally improving compared to its previous estimate of 3.7%.
She stated that, looking at 2021, although there is still a great degree of uncertainty due to the outbreak of the Covid-19 virus, and its potential impact on the non-oil economy, “we expect a wider recovery next year.”
She added that the current schedule included in her forecast assumes the launch of a large amount of the vaccine by mid-2021, according to announcements by companies regarding significant progress in developing the vaccine, and thus we expect a more robust economic recovery in the second half of 2021.
On the oil side, Jadwa’s current estimates for Saudi oil production indicate that OPEC and its partners may add about 1.9 million barrels per day to total production in January 2021, but oil production may be much less than expected if the alliance cuts part of the planned rise during a meeting. OPEC is planned next week.