Popular formula to search for alien life inspires new way to predict the spread of “Covid-19”


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A famous formula to search for alien life inspires a new way to predict the spread of “Covid-19”, Today, Thursday, October 29, 2020 03:01 am

The famous formula used in the search for alien life has inspired a new model that estimates the possibilities of transmission of “Covid-19”. The new model, which is essentially a single equation in several terms multiplied together, estimates the risk of “Covid-19” transmission through the air. The motivation for their work was another simple but historically important mathematical equation known as the “Drake equation”, which estimates the chances of finding intelligent extraterrestrial life in our galaxy. The authors said the equation, developed in 1961 by astronomer Frank Drake, is based on Only seven variables provide an “easy-to-understand framework” for looking at something as unknown as the number of alien civilizations. They wanted to provide a similar framework to understand the risks of transmission of “Covid 19”.

Rajat Mittal, a professor of mechanical engineering at Johns Hopkins University, said in a statement: “There is still a lot of confusion about the transmission pathways of“ Covid-19. ”This is partly due to the lack of a common ‘language’ that makes it easy to understand the risk factors involved. They have to study. What really needs to happen in order for a person to become infected? If we can visualize this process more clearly and in a quantitative way, we can make better decisions about which activities to resume and which to avoid. ”The new paradigm, published on October 7, In the journal Physics of Fluids, Covid-19 has three phases: expelling droplets containing the virus from an infected person in the air; These droplets are dispersed, and these droplets are inhaled by a sensitive person.

In general, the model consists of 10 variables involved in the transmission of “Covid-19”, including the respiratory rate of infected and susceptible people, the amount of virus particles in exhaled droplets, and the amount of time the exposed person is exposed. The authors then used their model, which they called the Airborne Infection Inequality Model (CAT), to estimate transmission risks in various scenarios, including the use of face masks or social distancing, as well as when people exercise.

And in the inequality model, if the amount of virus inhaled is greater than the amount needed to cause infection, the other person would get sick. The model found that in a scenario where people exercise aggressively, such as in the gym, the risk of transmission rises sharply. As for social distancing, the researchers found that there is a linear relationship between distance and the risk of transmission. Mittal said in a separate statement from the journal: “If you double the distance, you are generally doubling your protection. This kind of metric or rule can help inform policy.”

The researchers note that they intended their model to be simple and intuitive so that it could be accessed not only by scientists, but to policymakers and even the general public. They acknowledge that their model makes a number of assumptions and includes key unknown variables. Nevertheless, the authors hope that with their work, they can “enrich future studies that will bridge these gaps in our understanding of” Covid-19 “, Mittal said.

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