Neil Cybart explained that the pace of growth in the iPhone user base has slowed due to the massive smartphone penetration. In the past three years, there have also been fewer new iPhone users, and in 2020 it is expected that 80 percent of users will upgrade from old iPhones and that only one in five phones will be in the hands of a new user.
While sales decreased twice (the first after the holiday season in the year 2015, and the second after the holiday season in the year 2018), it is estimated that Apple will be able to reach nearly 250 million sales in the fourth quarter of 2021 knowing that the current number is about 200 million Sold out during each period of three months.
In order to keep Apple’s sales strong, Neil Cybart suggested that the company needs to focus on “pushing the limits of camera technology,” raising “the value of owning an iPhone,” as well as “increasing the number of roles that iPhones take on”.
Neil Cybart finished his analysis by predicting that while the iPhone allowed Apple to reach 1 billion active users, it is the Apple Watch smartwatch that will move the company to 2 billion users.