No care beds in late September, and Corona injuries may reach 80,000 ?!


Hadeel Farfour wrote in Al-Akhbar: By the end of this month, it is expected that the number of patients infected with the Corona virus who need intensive care will exceed the number of beds available in Lebanon, according to the findings of research prepared by Professor of Physics at the Lebanese University and the Lebanese International University Omar Deeb And professor of economics at the Lebanese American University, Maya Jalloul, studied four scenarios for the rate of spread of the virus until the end of this September, ranging from “the maximum spread level that was recorded after the explosion of Beirut Port to the controlled spread after the gradual reopening of the country.”

The research is based on the data available since the beginning of the virus’s spread (last February 21) and relied on mathematical simulation models, reaching that by September 30th, the number of infections will range between 39,000 and 74,000, and that the number of recorded infections per day may range between 930 and 3,400, according to Jiddiya Social distancing measures and the extent of adherence to them. ”

Based on the fact that 1% of the infected people need intensive care, the research expected that by the end of this process, the number of these will reach more than 336 (which is the number of beds announced by the Ministry of Health to be available) in the event that the infection continues to spread at its current pace, “and this constitutes a real threat to the ability of The health sector is keen to absorb these cases, especially since the intensive care beds are not only needed by Corona patients, but by a large number of people with chronic diseases.With the continued relaxation in the application of spacing measures, the health sector may reach a state of saturation and the inability to absorb new cases before the end September », and« this is what would constitute a health disaster and increase the number of deaths and leave dozens of patients outside the intensive care rooms.

And the researchers previously published a scientific study last July in which they forecast the number of cases expected over a period of 6 weeks, and the results of injuries on that day matched the numbers they had set.

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