The security challenge
In the security challenge, which has become known as the threat of the broader northern front, which extends from Beirut through Damascus, to Baghdad, to Tehran, to Tehran, it is clear that Tel Aviv, with the United States, is seeking to achieve a set of accomplishments that challenge and weaken the vehicles of its enemy axis, even if so far in the endeavors that She does not know whether she will achieve the expected results. This fact is understood by it, even if it is now seen that it is achieving “gains” in the short term, while the goal it is actually seeking is very far from verification: repelling the formation and growth of threats and also its growing in the arenas of its enemies, which are no longer concentrated in one yard, including also what It is in a judgment that could not be faced.
In the endeavors of blocking, Tel Aviv is moving towards the edge of the sword, even if it is striving in parallel to achieve the maximum possible result, with great caution not to cause widespread confrontations that realize that it cannot bear its consequences, and that, in contrast, it is able to inflict extensive harm in The ranks of its enemies. But the certainty of the harm she expects for herself is enough to deter her and prompt her to be extremely careful.
The battle within these borders has been going on for years, and Israel, along with the United States, is making achievements in its seemingly endless rounds, but without ending the threats that the battle has found to repel it, but rather proves day after day the threat and its accumulation have increased, which leads Tel Aviv to use the United States, Its godfather, which is now to protect and protect the Israeli entity and work on its own to prevent regional threats against it, rather than the entity itself being the fighting vehicle that achieves the American will in the region, without being able to confront it.
The battle continues non-stop, but there is more than one contradictory factor between braking, pushing, motivating and deterring, and balancing the current price of aggressive acts against subsequent, larger, broader, and more painful prices. The talk here is related to a battle against the resistance in Lebanon and preventing the expansion of its capabilities qualitatively, and Israel intends to prevent Hezbollah from possessing precision missiles. So far, the rules of engagement stand firm and Israel forcibly refuses to break it, as attempting to break would cause a response and response, and a series of mutual responses … and then roll over to a military confrontation that is difficult to estimate the extent to which it can reach.
The same applies to the Iranian presence in Syria, which is what Israel calls “the Iranian concentration”, against which many promises were issued years ago and still are, and even yesterday it was announced that it was almost over and the Iranians were in the final departure from Syria. And it does not appear that the well-studied and well-cautious Israeli strikes on the Syrian scene would end “centralization”, but in return it began to take hold more and more, especially as it was based on a joint Syrian-Iranian will, the last expression of which was bilateral security and military agreements that aroused the ire of Israel . In this particular arena, the challenge is very great and its effects are harsh on Tel Aviv, and more significantly on the medium and long term, and it can currently coexist relatively with the stage of “formation and concentration”.
The Netanyahu government fears further economic repercussions, which further exacerbate the crisis for the Israelis
One of the total restrictions of Tel Aviv in this arena is that it is almost handcuffed to the initiative according to its strategy adopted to strike its enemies and influence their decisions and directions, because it is forced to move away and not to harm the actual “center of gravity” in Syria, which it can bet on in order to cause confusion on “Iranian Positioning.” This is perhaps one of the things that some people neglect to endorse, even if there is a lot of talk about Israeli attacks here and there.
The center of gravity that Tel Aviv can “crowd in the corner” by targeting or seriously threatening to target it is the vehicles and capabilities of the Syrian regime itself, but this center of gravity is outside the actual Israeli ability to target that leads to influencing the will of Damascus or the will of Tehran, combined or dispersed. In view of the Syrian arena’s equations, the balance of power in it, the ramifications and conflicts of interest in it for more than one player, among which is what Tel Aviv cannot overcome.
Any serious violation of the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad will ultimately lead to a wide military confrontation, which Israel has been keen to avoid so far, because it fears its price and fears its regional repercussions, and may even lead to the hand of Israel completely ceasing to harm Syria. As for the attacks, which are considered “roads on the outskirts” away from the centers of gravity of the axis and its vehicles, they do not bring much benefit except with regard to the psychological factor, with little material achievement in the context.
The Corona pandemic is pressuring Israel in more than one direction and level, and its negative repercussions are not limited to the health status of the Israelis. The second wave of the virus struck strongly, reaching the point that Israel ranked third, after the United States and Chile, with the number of infections relative to the population. The Israeli Minister of Health Yuli Adelstein warned of the expected repercussions of the virus after its renewed spread and outbreak, pointing out that only a miracle could save Israel from the disaster. And the talk is about twice the number of infections than in the first wave of the virus.
It is clear to those in the Israeli affairs who are concerned about the failure to address the consequences of “Corona” and its rapid spread. While the specialized agencies focus on the necessities of a complete closure, the Netanyahu government faces the closure by procrastination and partial local closures, as it fears more economic repercussions that exacerbate the crisis of the Israelis and increase the unemployment rate, which increased the outcome of the first wave of the virus from the rate of 21 percent, which is estimated To increase. According to the data, the number of the unemployed is close to 800 thousand, including 575 thousand who were taken on unpaid leave, knowing that entire sectors are now subject to bankruptcy and final cessation, without an effective horizon to get out of the crisis.
At the same time, the Corona pandemic and its repercussions have become a major component in the political interactions between the ruling elite. Rather, it has expanded to be a material of attraction between the political and military institutions, while the horizon is blocked from treatment. The miracle that the Minister of Health spoke about does not seem to be coming, and he practically implicitly acknowledges that health institutions are unable to cope with the virus, although he insists on continuing to take over with other ministerial bodies to address the consequences of the virus. In exchange for the Ministry of Health, which is controlled by the Likud party, the Minister of Security, Bani Gantz, that is, the “Blue and White” party, presses his ministry with the Israeli army to confront “Corona”, which Netanyahu rejects and strives to prevent, so that the treatment of “Corona” from Before his political opponents who control the Ministry of Security, the spotlight is kept away from him, with a focus on their successes, especially if the army can limit the spread of the virus, as many of its institutions and institutions allow it to do so. Netanyahu fears such an outcome at a very sensitive stage from a political point of view, which could witness the breakdown of the government’s contract and the launch of fourth early elections, which means giving credit for the opponents free of charge, in elections that may be likely, but the question is when and under what slogan?
The virus casts heavy shadows on the Israeli army, causing it to cancel its planned exercises and maneuvers as part of an intensive rehabilitation program aimed at achieving readiness in the face of the potential for escalation on more than one front. If the infections continue to increase and at the pace they are now, the virus will not far affect the army’s activities and procedures. It suffices to indicate hundreds of casualties in the military units, and more than 11,500 soldiers have now been quarantined, leaving the current activities and preparing for various scenarios equivalent to a full-fledged military division in permanent service, including sectors of intelligence units that are the mainstay of Israel’s ability and prevented by security .
A description of Corona’s repercussions on the army’s preparedness plan appears in the Haaretz newspaper in a report called “Kochavi had plans so the reality came and smacked him in the face.” According to the newspaper, Kochavi suffered damage that he could no longer achieve his strategic vision (plan) “Tanova”, through which he hoped to improve the army’s capabilities to ensure decisiveness in the coming wars. It became clear to him that what he was demanding would not be achieved as a result of the differences between the Prime Minister and the Minister of Security, which causes political uncertainty with additional pressure for Corona, which led to a serious deterioration in the economy and severely impeded and exacerbated the budget deficit.
Doubts about annexation
The annexation plan lost one of its most important elements, which is the American momentum that characterized the position of the American administration when Netanyahu set the date for its full implementation in the first of this month. The American factor, though not alone in preventing the annexation plan from coming into effect, is that it is the most important factor, and an Israeli is described as sufficient in himself to prevent the plan. According to a high-ranking Israeli security official, in an interview with Al-Monitor in its Hebrew version: “The opportunity to implement the annexation plan, even for parts of the West Bank, has become very low to no level of likelihood,” pointing out that “there are many conditions and conditions that must Come true before that. ”
Security concerns, which are estimated to be activated upon the issuance of the annexation plan, are pressed on the annexation plan, which he emphasized in “closed rooms with Netanyahu”, according to various Israeli sources, both Chief of Staff Aviv Kochavi and the director of the Internal Security Forces (Shin Bet) Nadav Argaman: The annexation of a third Palestinian uprising against Israel, with a high level possibility, could also cause a security escalation with the Gaza front. However, this does not mean that the plan is gone and that it is carried over to “indefinitely”. Yes, Netanyahu can override the army’s estimates, which seem to be based on fear that he is busy with files that deflect his focus from confronting the northern front with its various vehicles, and it is experiencing hotter and potential for extremist scenarios, but he is unable to exceed what the Israelis call prior coordination with the US administration in the annexation decision. And that means receiving prior approval from Donald Trump, who is busy with a series of internal files related to his presidential race and has declined his chances to renew for a second term.
But is Trump’s decision final? This can be confirmed within the foreseeable and very near future, but from now until the elections in next November, a very long period of time, and you may witness a change in the situation if Trump finds that this serves him electorally, especially with a demanding and urgent position by his evangelical constituents who depend They have a lot at the polls.