The Diab government’s economic plan, in the spring of 2020, is no better than the Hariri government’s plan, in the fall of 2019. Both are attempts that politicians only want to maneuver to silence domestic and international demands and evade reform and accountability. And if the fall of the previous plan led to the overthrow of the government as well, does the fall of the current plan bring down the current government?
Deepening the approach that leads the country, with the government of President Hassan Diab, serious questions arise about the future. On the 100th anniversary of her creation, the government gave birth to her rescue project … but he was, most likely, stillborn.
Economists are unanimous in criticizing the project, because it completely ignores the demands of reform, and it does not touch at all the areas of corruption and the corrupt, neither the politicians and the rulers among them, nor the money and economists.
An expert who keeps pace with the developments witnessed by the project says: “It was not necessary to waste public opinion with details of more than 60 pages, in Arabic and the like in English, but it was sufficient for a few procedures and firm decisions to implement the laws in effect, instead of“ theories ”that have no value except in “Wasting shinkash”.
For example: Does reform of the public sector need new laws and legislations, or only the implementation of laws, starting with the abolition of thousands of fake jobs and scrutiny of corruption in departments and cutting more than 5 thousand employees who entered the sector contrary to the law?
Does stopping tax evasion and smuggling through legal and illegal crossings and facilities need new legislation? Do the persistent increases in the use of state property, the misuse of public funds, and the cessation of fraud and forgery need financial and economic plans or merely to implement the law?
Does entering electricity, telecommunications, the CDR, funds, and others require legislation or a will to implement the law? Why does it persist in ignoring the serious search for looted or transferred funds and link it to the economic plan, while it only needs a quick and practical executive decision?
Would the solution be by denying the “Capitol Control” and evading it, while it is already in a discretionary form? Would it be avoiding “hierarchies” by muddling the numbers and their loss and the texts that can be interpreted in the generated plan, while it is being implemented realistically, and targeting the various segments, severely, due to the collapse of the value of the national currency and the holding of deposits in dollars?
Will the solution be by sterile exchange of accusations, in a discretionary and politicized manner, between the pillars of the crisis: the government, the Ministry of Finance, politicians, the central bank, and the Association of Banks, while everyone is silent when the facts begin to be revealed? As a summary, how can a financial-economic plan be implemented without coordination between those concerned?
Worse, this plan was not coordinated with the International Monetary Fund, the first concerned with its success or failure. The expert says: “They deal with the fund as if it is just a” municipal fund in the estate, “as if its officials were naive and would agree to provide them with billions, without reforms. This is impossible. Any dollar will only reach those who inspire confidence. The first responses to the request for assistance suggest that. ”
The political team that runs the government has discovered that France is unable to move “Cedar” aid only through the IMF, and that all Europeans take this position, and that Washington is pushing hard in this direction, so he decided to “imagely” cooperate with the Fund to pass aid only. .
In other words, the crew decided to engage with the fund without making any real “reform” concessions. And when the French and others release the money, it becomes easy in Lebanon to pass the sensitive period in which Iran’s allies are passing, which ends in the fall, either by renewing US President Donald Trump, or by the arrival of a Democrat president.
But this game is dangerous and may lead to a deepening disaster. As a reminder, linking Lebanon to the regional-international confrontation may lead it to a place where controlling matters becomes more difficult.
It is no accident that Iran decided yesterday to delete four zeros from the riyal, in an attempt to contain its sharp decline due to the US sanctions. The dollar in the informal market reached 156 thousand riyals. The value of the Iranian currency has declined 3500 times since the revolution in 1979, which imposed a reform in the “appearance of the currency” and improving its relationship with the dollar.
Experts do not attach importance to this reduction, because the depth of the problem, that is, the siege imposed on Tehran, is still continuing. The proof is that Turkey resorted to a similar decision to delete six zeros from its currency in the year 2005. But the plan did not work, and the economy only improved by entering Ankara into the European markets, attracting foreign capital, and rationalizing the economy.
The question in Lebanon is: Does the policy followed by the real pillars of the authority lead to a similar collapse of the economy, money, and lira, which necessitates the deletion of 3 zeros from them, or 4 for example, knowing that they are essentially inflated with zeros since their collapse 3 decades ago? Will these people learn the Iranian lesson or be led to it?