And Pyrex also mentioned another model, publicly available, that paints a grim picture of what will happen in the United States, even as social divergence continues.
The model predicts that more than 2,000 people will die every day in the United States in mid-April, the time that the virus is expected to hit the country hard.
The model, which is regularly updated, also predicts that 224,000 hospital beds, or 61,000 extra beds, will be needed on April 15, when the United States reaches its “peak health resource use”.
Assuming that social separation continues in May, the model finds that by August, “Coffed-19” might kill about 82,000 people in the United States.
The analysis is based on data from Italy, China and the United States, using past experience to forecast the future.
Like many models, expectations are incomplete, yet researchers have reached a disturbing conclusion that even as social divergence measures are taken and sustained, the maximum demands on hospital services due to the Covid-19 pandemic will likely exceed the absorptive capacity significantly.
The model, designed by the University of Washington Institute for Standards and Health Assessment, relies on information from state, national, and hospital groups, as well as WHO.
Pyrex, the White House health official, said this weekend that state and local officials should react quickly to the emerging Corona virus threat and enact social measures of separation so that “we have the ability to move forward and protect most Americans.”
The death rate could be higher if the states did not enact these procedures, or if citizens did not follow them.
The model assumes that officials’ measures will reduce social mixing during May, by closing schools, staying at home, and limiting unnecessary travel and work. For states that do not implement at least 3 of these measures, model estimates for hospital use and mortality will increase.
The researchers pointed out that their estimate of 81,000 deaths in the United States during the next four months is a worrying figure, but this number may be significantly higher if the excess demand for health system resources is not addressed, and if social divergence policies are not implemented and strictly enforced In all states. ”
The country’s chief infectious disease expert, Dr. Anthony Fossey, spoke to CNN on Sunday about the possibility of many deaths, saying, “Given what we are seeing now, I think there could be 100,000 and 200,000 deaths.”
However, Fossey, who is director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, explained that the model is not ideal.
Models are not perfect
The researchers behind the model warn that the forecast is not entirely accurate.
The model is based in part on information from the United States and Italy, but it also uses data from Wuhan in China, where officials strictly implemented four measures of social estrangement, namely school closures, unnecessary business closures, and obliging residents to stay at home, as well as travel restrictions.
The researchers assumed that only 3 of these measures would be sufficient in the United States to follow a path similar to Wuhan. “It is possible that all four measures may be taken,” the researchers wrote in an accompanying paper.
The states have not yet ordered a legally binding travel ban, but there are many areas that have closed schools, ordered companies to close, and require residents to stay in homes.
The states face various challenges
In areas already affected by the Coronavirus, such as New York, the state will need approximately 71,574 hospital beds on April 9, more than 58,564 additional beds. You will also need about 8,855 breathing apparatus.
The state’s governor, Andrew Como, believes the reality may be more terrifying.
Como called for the provision of 30,000 respirators in the state, noting that New York will need approximately 140,000 beds during the height of the virus, which is expected to be after 14 to 21 days. Perhaps because of these expectations, Como worked hard to strengthen the capacity of hospitals.
A 1,000-bed hospital is slated to open at a New York convention center, and Como said on Saturday that Trump had agreed to build 4 new emergency medical facilities in the state, providing 4,000 additional beds.