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Paris: New research from Britain showed Tuesday that middle-aged people, not just the elderly, are at risk of death or acute infection with the emerging coronavirus.
These results came after a new comprehensive analysis of HIV cases in China.
Researchers from Britain analyzed more than 3,600 confirmed cases of Covid-19, in addition to data from hundreds of travelers returning from the Chinese city of Wuhan, from which the disease spread.
They found that age is a major factor in severe disease, as one in every five people over the age of 80 required hospital treatment, compared to about 1% of people under the age of 30.
Taking into account estimates of the number of cases that may not have been confirmed clinically, that is, a slight infection of the virus or their infection without symptoms, the data showed that the percentage of patients who are in the fifties of age who required hospital treatment was 8,2%.
The study, published in the “The Lancet” magazine for infectious diseases, estimated that the rate of confirmed cases of the virus in mainland China was 1.38%.
If uncertainties are taken into account, the death rate will drop to 0.66%.
Although this percentage is much lower than previous estimates, the researchers said, Covid-19 is many times more deadly than previous epidemic viruses such as H1N1.
“Our estimates can be applied to any country for decision makers to rely on and follow the best policies to contain Covid-19,” said Azra Ghani, who co-authored the study from Imperial College London.
“There may be cases that have garnered a lot of media attention, but our analysis shows very clearly that patients aged 50 and over were more in need of hospital treatment compared to those under 50 years of age, and the majority of cases are likely To be fatal. ”
– “wrong way” –
Billions of people around the world are in their homes as governments strive to stop the spread of the Corona virus.
The new Corona virus has killed at least 38,466 people in the world since its appearance in December in China, according to a toll prepared by Agence France-Presse based on official sources on Tuesday at 11:00 GMT.
However, experts stress that without large-scale screening, it is impossible to know how many people have contracted the virus and how many have recovered from it.
The study showed that 18.4% of patients in the eighties were hospitalized in China, while the proportion of those between the ages of 40 and 49 was 4.3%, and those in their twenties were 1%.
According to the comparison process conducted by the study authors, they estimate that between 50-80% of the world’s population may develop Covid-19. But these estimates come with many caveats, because the comparison process does not take into account behavioral changes such as hand washing and social divergence.
Devi Sridhar, professor and head of the Global Public Health Department at the University of Edinburgh’s School of Medicine, said it was the assumption that most people would become infected that drove governments, including in Britain, to abandon measures that could help slow the epidemic.
She wrote on Twitter on Tuesday that the models “resulted in the UK giving up containment too early, and assuming everyone would get sick.”
Therefore, “planning and preparation for unprecedented testing were excluded, and the use of big data / applications to track the injured. In my view, we drove down the wrong path,” she said.
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