Corona injuries in the Kingdom enter the top of the epidemic curve

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At a time when a number of international research centers began estimating the curves of the life-cycle of the epidemic by relying on the epidemiological curve of the spread of the virus expected to start declining globally by 95% next May 29, a Saudi doctor, using the same technology, expected that the end of the epidemiological curve of the virus in the Kingdom would be the end of By May 3, the incidence will gradually decrease.The epidemiologist and biostatologist Dr. Ibrahim Al-Jaafari Al-Ghamdi expected that the total number of infections in the Kingdom by the end of the seventh week, which ends on May 3, will reach between 25,684 cases as a minimum and 30,577 cases as a maximum.

Average infection

Al-Ghamdi has determined, through a projected model of the average secondary infection with Corona virus in the Kingdom, that the virus begins to recede by the end of next May after the average infection reaches 0.5, which is the rate of transmission of the person infected with the virus, where the average infection during this week, which is the seventh week, will be between 1 and 1.6 as low From the previous week in which the average infection was 1.7, then the mean infection began to decrease to reach in the eighth week between 0.7-0.9, in the ninth week between 0.6-0.8, and in the tenth week between 0.5-0.7. Al-Ghamdi shows in his curves of the average infection a rise in the average infection in the virus at its beginning, where the average at the beginning of the spread of the virus was 6.8, in the first week 3.8, in the second week 2, in the third week 1.4, and the fourth week 2, to rise in the fifth week to 2.3 and return to decline In the sixth week, continuing to decline.

Curve Summit Week

Al-Ghamdi indicated that the top of the injury curve in the Kingdom started since Monday April 27, when he set across the epidemiological curve a minimum, medium and higher for injuries, expecting that the minimum total of injuries on April 27 will be about 18,688 and a maximum of 19,387, while cases are expected to arrive on the day of April 28 between 19,854 to 21,252, and on April 29 between 21,020 and 23,117, reaching April 30 between 22,186 and 24,982, and on May 1 23,352 and 26,847, and May 2, injuries reach between 24,518 and 28,712, reaching the upper limit of injuries and the end The pinnacle of the epidemiological curve is on May 3, when minimal infections will be reached between 25,684 and 30,577.

The epidemiological curve for the seventh week set by Al-Ghamdi indicated that the daily rate of injury registration is between 1166 cases as a minimum and 1515 cases as an average and 1865 cases per day as a maximum of injury, after which the rate of daily infections begins to decrease and the number of active infections begins to decline.

Expectations of the end of Corona in the Kingdom

A research center affiliated with the University of Singapore pointed out that corona ends in the Kingdom by 97% on May 21, as it determined the entry of injuries in the Kingdom to the top of the curve on April 27, and the curve models that deal with injuries in 28 countries around the world indicated by estimating the epidemiological life cycle curves Predicting when the pandemic may end in the UAE on May 11, in Egypt on May 19, in Amman on May 15, in Kuwait on June 5, in Bahrain on August 6 and in Jordan on May 6.







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