World population under “quarantine” .. When will the restrictions end?


Dozens of countries in the world resorted to imposing quarantine or restrictions on the movement of their citizens, recently, in an effort to limit the spread of the new Corona virus (Covid 19), which infected nearly half a million people in the world, and led to the death of more than 19 thousand infected people.And after more than two billion people became under the restrictions of quarantine in various regions of the world, governments are betting on social divergence, in order to curb the epidemic, especially after the situation in China improved, where the virus first appeared, late last year, and then significantly decreased in it. , Recently.

Many wonder about the duration of the “quarantine”, and whether it will take several weeks or months and years, given the need for any possible vaccine against the virus for a period ranging between one and 18 months, due to the need for laboratories to extensive experiments to monitor any possible side complications.

“Inspiring” Chinese Model
On January 23, China began a comprehensive Chinese stone, in a way that the world had never seen before. It decided to enter and exit from Wuhan, the epicenter of a virus, and 11 million residents of the present city found themselves unable to move freely, and was stopped Public transportation, and the authorities allowed exit only for essential purposes such as providing food and medicine.The city relied heavily on home delivery services, with tighter measures that extended to Hubei, the center of the country, and in this period, more than 500 million people in China came under the weight of travel restrictions.

So far, these measures seem to have paid off. On March 19, the Chinese authorities did not report any local infection with the Corona virus, and the new patients, most of whom are being monitored, are returning from outside the country.

Consequently, two months of strict quarantine were enough for China to make significant progress in fighting the epidemic, and it is now working to ease restrictions in Hubei Province, some areas of which have not reported any new infections for two weeks.

And in the event that the Hubei provincial authorities do not record new injuries, in the coming days, the movement restrictions may be lifted starting from the eighth of next Tisan, even if many fear a “setback” if the movement of people returns to the previous era.

Relapse fears
A report issued by the University of “Imperial College” in London revealed that the social divergence measures that China has worked proved successful in containing the Corona virus, and ruled out that easing the restrictions would lead to the epidemic returning to the outbreak.

The British report relied on injury figures in Hubei province, and measured the trend of injuries, under quarantine, and the stage of gradually removing restrictions in order to restore life to what it was in the Chinese region.

“We don’t know what will happen in China in the coming period,” said researcher Stephen Riley, one of the co-authors of the scientific report.

The report stated that the easing of severe travel restrictions in China showed that the epidemic is not due to the outbreak in the near term, but this scientific reassurance is still cautious.

As many countries in the world try to benefit from the Chinese experience, experts say that “reproducing” this successful model is not easy, given the important potential of the Asian country, as well as its strictness in implementing the procedures, and therefore, the fruits reaped in a period of about ten weeks.

A study released by the Australian University of Sydney recently revealed that if 80 percent of the country’s population complies with social separation procedures for a period of no less than four months, Australia will need 13 or 14 weeks to contain the epidemic, i.e. if the separation begins today, It will pay off in July, which means that the shrine of people in their homes will be longer than they think.


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