In a few days, cases of coronavirus “Covid-19” in the United States increased from 13,000 to more than 140,000, making this country the first in the world in terms of the number of infections. American health experts have predicted that the disease will peak in the next two weeks.
It is estimated that one person infected with Coronavirus, can cause two to three people in one course.
However, the worst-case scenario for the number of injuries and collisions is caused by repeated infection cycles. According to specialists, a single person can cause more than 88,000 people in just 10 cycles.
How is it calculated?
The process is based on a mathematical formula for disease prevalence, denoted as R0 and the pronouncement R naught. It is an estimate of the average number of people who can be infected by one person who has the virus. Of course, the number increases, the more the infection spreads to new people, according to Al Hurra.
If the value of R0 is “less than one”, this means that every existing hit causes less than a new hit. In this case, the disease will decrease and eventually fade.
And if the value is “one”, this means that every injury can cause a new injury. In the sense that the disease will remain, but remains stable, but does not amount to an outbreak or epidemic.
But if the value is “more than one”, the injured person can affect more than one person, and the disease may turn into an epidemic, as in the case of Covid-19.
This process applies specifically to the population free from the disease and have not been injected with the vaccine against the virus, and the inability to control the disease in their region.
Since one person with Covid-19 may affect three people as a maximum in one cycle (R0 of 3), and that the worst-case scenario expected of each person is in ten cycles, the calculation is performed by raising the number three to the power of 10 with the addition of the sum of the cycles Previous, to conclude the total number of potential injured, which in this case is 88,572.
It is noteworthy that the Covid-19 epidemic is very contagious, especially when compared to influenza that has an infection rate (R0 of 1.4), that is, the infected person can only infect one person in one round, and in ten sessions the number does not exceed 99 people.
Healthline published a drawing showing the rate of transmission of a number of infectious diseases.
One of the factors that can influence these numbers is population density and safety practices such as social distancing.
The period of infection
Some diseases contend for longer periods than others. For example, adults with influenza are able to transmit infection for up to eight days, according to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), while this period is up to two weeks in children.
The longer the infectious period of the disease, the more likely the infected person will infect other people. The length of the infection increases R0.
The Corona virus is transmitted from person to person through respiratory droplets at a very rapid rate due to the ability of the virus to adhere to the median cells 10 times more than the previous Corona viruses.
The death rate from the Covid-19 epidemic ranges between 2-5 percent. The symptoms of the disease can remain hidden for up to two weeks.