GB Morgan Emerging Markets Economies Expected by Mid-Year


direct: GB Morgan predicts that the economic impact of the Corona virus will push emerging markets, with the exception of China, into recession by the middle of this year

“We now expect an economic recession in the first half of the year in emerging markets, with the exception of China, with measures to contain the virus and the contraction of developed markets soaring,” the investment bank said in a note to clients on Thursday.

The negative impact of the Corona virus on emerging economies, which is represented by a contraction of 12 percent in Latin America and 13 percent in Europe, the Middle East and Africa, is expected to be the largest quarterly decline in these countries since the global financial crisis, according to the American bank.

The bank indicated that it is likely that the decline in annual economic growth in Turkey by 17.2 percent and Mexico by 15.5 percent on a quarterly basis is the largest in the emerging markets in the second quarter with the economies of Central and Eastern Europe.

The bank added that in Latin America, Colombia, Brazil and Mexico, it is expected to receive the largest blows of GDP in the whole of the current year, all approaching a 3 percent drop in the fourth quarter.


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