Al-Awadi in a study on “Corona”: Kuwait is able to surround it

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Muhammad Al-Awadi –

With the number of new cases of coronavirus in Kuwait not exceeding a few dozen people united in terms of the source of infection, it is easy for the country to control this epidemic in a quick time, based on the high material and health capabilities, the small size of the country, and the limited number of residents in its infrastructure areas are good Besides, there are wellness centers equipped in all suburbs.

With the world experiencing panic because of the spread of this “non-lethal” virus at great rates, with the number of infections around the world reaching more than 100,000 cases in dozens of countries, more than 3 thousand people have died “as of the writing of this study”, the analytical view appears The curves of the disease call for a deep understanding of the course of infection in order to control and cope with the disease, like its predecessors from epidemics that claimed the lives of millions of people.

The world was exposed to many deadly epidemics in the past, the gravity of which was greater than the Corona epidemic. The Spanish flu that spread in the world after the First World War is one of the most famous ones, as it affected more than a quarter of the Earth’s population at that time with the number of deaths ranging between 40 and 50 million people. This epidemic afflicted the Gulf and the Arabian Peninsula and caused a large number of deaths, and the year of the disease was named 1919, the year of mercy, relative to the large number of those who were merciful to them who died because of it.

The world witnessed between 1957 and 1958 the Asian flu pandemic, which spread in many countries of the world and caused the death of more than one million people.

Between 1968 and 1969, the Hong Kong influenza pandemic spread to many countries of the world and led to the death of more than a million people. In 2009, the H1N1 swine flu pandemic spread, killing nearly 203,000 people.

Time cycle

And by studying the time course of infections with the Coronavirus and some other epidemics through graphs presented by the concerned sites, it becomes clear that for each epidemic, a time cycle begins with a few infections and then rises with the days until it reaches the peak level, after which the infections begin to decline slowly after controlling the epidemic until it ends .

The epidemiological curve takes a shape similar to the natural curve, and this curve is known to statisticians, and it is called the bell curve because it takes the form of a church bell in its ideal state.

SARS epidemic

In Figure 1, the attachment pertains to the SARS epidemic in the world that started on November 16, 2002 and ended on July 5, 2003, which afflicted 29 countries with 8096 cases, 774 deaths, or nearly 10%. The figure shows that the peak period of SARS was between March and April 2003.

Ebola

If we look at Figure 2 of the deadly Ebola virus that afflicted the western part of the African continent between 2014 and 2015, particularly in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, we will notice that the epidemic is formed in various forms of epidemiological cycles in the three countries, most of the infections were in Sierra Leone and the lowest infections were in Guinea and the lowest epidemic cycle was in Liberia, where the epidemic started in this country in March 2014 and ended in March 2015.

September 2014 was the month in which the peak of the epidemic occurred in Liberia, where in some weeks of that month the incidence reached nearly 500, while the cycle of the epidemic for Sierra Leone and Guinea was between January 2014 and June 2015.

The Ebola epidemic in Sierra Leone peaked in November 2014, with close to 700 injuries in one week, while in Guinea between September and December 2014, it reached no more than 20 injuries for most weeks.

The total number of cases of this epidemic in West Africa was 1779, of which 961 died, or 54%.

Corona curves

In terms of the current virus that has occupied the whole world, Figure 3 shows four curves for the number of cases of infection every day for the past January and February, the first for infections in Hubei Province, China, which is afflicted by the epidemic city, Wuhan, and the second for the number of infections outside Hubei Province in China, and the third Injuries to the rest of the world and the fourth to total injuries in the world.

From the figure, it appears that the daily casualties in Hubei Province have been escalating since mid-January 2020, and reached the highest level on the seventh of February with nearly 4 thousand injuries, and then the number of injuries began to decrease, with a noticeable degree between 21 and 28 February. As for the Chinese regions outside Hubei Province, it is noticed from the figure that the daily injuries have been on the rise since mid-January, until they reached the highest level in the beginning of February with nearly a thousand injuries, and then they started to decrease significantly until they reached less than 10 injuries per day with End of February.

Speaking of daily injuries in the rest of the world other than China, it is noted that the general trend of injuries is on the rise from the end of January until it reached 1000 injuries on February 28. It is also noticed that there is a twinning between the curve of injuries in Hubei Province and the curve of total injuries for all countries including China, which is due to the fact that the majority of injuries and deaths in this epidemic, which exceeds 90% until the present time, were in the share of the Chinese Hubei Province, but it is noticed at the same time that The curves began to separate after February 21, the curve of Hubei Province has decreased due to the decrease in the number of daily injuries due to controlling this epidemic, while it is noticed that the curve of total injuries for all countries of the world is heading towards an escalation as a result of escalation in daily injuries.

Qualitative improvement

It is possible to conclude the improvement of conditions in Hubei Province and the rest of China, but the epidemic is still in its infancy in the rest of the world, and the number of injuries may not reach the peak level soon, because the countries of the world differ in their capabilities and preparations to block and reduce this epidemic.

Virus .. not fatal

Epidemiologists believe that the new Corona virus is not fatal. The death rates that it may cause are less than 2% of infections, but its ability to spread and infection is more than twice that of seasonal influenza, and they see that the world will not be able to control this epidemic quickly. Without developing the vaccine against the virus that causes it.

Informational role

The most important element for controlling this epidemic is the commitment of citizens and residents to preventive health directives, and the media outlets send frequent messages, especially in the means of communication, to prevent the epidemic, in different languages, until they reach non-Arabic-speaking arrivals.

Mortality of some epidemics in the world

50 million with Spanish flu in 1919

One million people with the Asian flu between 1958-1957

One million people with Hong Kong flu between 1969-1968

203 thousand swine flu in 2009

The spread of “Ebola” West Africa 2014

Possible SARS infections per week from November 1, 2002 to June 10, 2003

Corona daily injuries according to regions







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